Holidays

Devon and Cornwall weather for next five days of the school holidays

Devon and Cornwall children fed up with a showery weekend are in for a better week ahead as the school summer break starts in earnest. Forecasters think that the two counties will enjoy a mostly fine and dry week, with Wednesday the exception.

The Westcountry population has swelled as thousands headed to the region on Friday and Saturday for their summer breaks.

But the holidays got off to a disappointing start, with downpours on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Events like the Mid Devon Show, above, went ahead but conditions were muddy.

Here’s our day-by-day forecast for the next five days:

Monday:

Cloudy but dry to start with and becoming increasingly brighter as the day continues. The afternoon and evening should be very fine. Top temperature of 22C at 5pm

Tuesday:

Bright and dry all day although becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Top temperature of 22C at 1pm.

Wednesday:

A wet morning predicted, with the heavist rain around 10am. Clearing later to temperatures of 19C.

Thursday:

Dull and overcast but dry throughout the day. Cooler, with a top temperature of 18C.

Friday:

Sunshine and clouds for the morning, becoming more overcast into evening. Highs of 19C.

Looking further ahead it could be good news for British holidaymakers as the UK could bask in prolonged spells of dry, warm weather, according to the latest long-range forecast by government experts.

Forecasters are predicting that the UK could enjoy three months of pleasant weather and higher than average temperatures between July and September.

The Met Office’s official contingency planners’ outlook said: “The chances of a very hot summer are increased compared to normal, although relatively low overall.

“There is a shift in likelihood towards warmer-than-average conditions.

“For July-September, above-average temperatures are more probable than below-average.”

The Met Office long-range forecast is briefed to the Cabinet Office, councils, transport bosses and businesses.

Extended dry and warm spells are likely to become more prevalent across much of the UK by the end of this month, according to the data.

Despite a trend towards slightly more unsettled conditions into August, there is a signal for warmer-than-average temperatures into the middle of that month.

Predictions are based on information from observations, several numerical forecast systems and expert judgement.

Sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic around and to the west of the UK remain above normal, increasing the chances of higher-than-average temperatures through the period.

This is coupled with below normal temperatures in the north-western part of the North Atlantic, which moderately increases the
probability of high pressure and above-average temperatures over northern Europe.

Even so, the outlook is finely balanced with some indicators steering towards a cooler period before the end of the season.
Arctic Sea ice is used as a valuable long-range weather indicator by scientists.


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The extent of the ice remains below-average for the time of year and is expected to decline rapidly until September.

Low Arctic sea ice is considered to slightly increase the chance of cooler and wetter-than-average conditions in northern Europe at this time of year.

Dr Todd Crawford, chief forecaster of The Weather Company, said the outlook mirrored conditions from the hot summer of 2003 but warned that UK temperatures could fall slightly during August.

He said: “We have increased July forecast temperatures further across southern Europe and have decreased them across northern latitudes, as the same general pattern that has been in place since April is expected to continue through much of the remainder of the summer.

“There are many similarities between the current summer pattern and the pattern of the infamous summer of 2003, and climate models are in reasonable agreement that much of the mainland of Europe may be locked into a hot and dry pattern going forward.

“Nine of the last 10 summers have been characterised by negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern, likely driven by historically-low Arctic sea ice and unusually cool North Atlantic waters.

“These factors are both in play again this year, and we expect negative NAO conditions to be more prevalent in August.

“We have maintained below-normal temperatures across the UK in August for now in deference to our original Arctic-sea-ice-induced negative NAO expectations for the summer.”


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