2022 NFL MVP odds: Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen is the preseason favorite – will he win?

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The NFL offseason is in full swing, and the odds for the MVP award have already seen some movement since they were released in February. After opening as a co-favorite with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen is now listed as the odds-on favorite for the award at most sportsbooks. While he has entered the conversation in recent years, is this finally the season that Allen takes home MVP honors?

What are the odds for the 2022 NFL MVP award?

Josh Allen checks in as the MVP favorite with odds of +700 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady are next on the board with odds of +900 and +1000 respectively. Along with Brady at 10/1 is a group of quarterbacks consisting of Justin Herbert and Aaron Rodgers, followed by Joe Burrow, Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford.

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None of the favorites on the board should come as surprises. Where things open up is after that group, as Jalen Hurts checks in at +1800, followed by Kyler Murray, Derek Carr, Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson. This group presents a bit more volatility due to injury risks, uncertain team outlook or in Watson’s case, facing potential discipline from the league.

The non-QBs with the shortest odds are Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp and Titans running back Derrick Henry at +5000. Kupp put forth one of the best seasons by a wideout in recent memory in 2021, and Henry is reliably excellent in the backfield, although he has yet to receive a single MVP vote in his career. Deebo Samuel is also listed at +5000 but the do-it-all specialist is looking to be traded out of San Francisco and likely presents too much volatility to be worth a look.

Who should I bet on to win the MVP award?

Historically, this award is one that usually gets handed out to quarterbacks. In fact, the only non-QB to win league MVP since 2010 was Adrian Peterson’s historic campaign back in 2012. Needless to say this has essentially become a quarterback award, and if Aaron Rodgers’ back-to-back MVP’s over the last two seasons are any indication, it’s an award that values terrific stats on a strong regular season team.

Based on the last two seasons, Josh Allen has shown that he has the statistical profile to win this award. In 2020, Allen tossed 37 touchdowns and threw for over 4,500 yards en route to a second place MVP finish behind Rodgers. Last year, the Bills gunslinger threw for 4,400 yards and 36 touchdowns. Allen was a midseason favorite for the award, but ended up finishing out of contention after a few Bills losses down the stretch.

It’s clear to see why Allen is the preseason favorite. Buffalo should be one of the best teams in the league this season, boasting talent and experience on both sides of the ball while playing in a manageable AFC East. And with Rodgers having won the last couple of MVP’s, there should be voter fatigue with the Packers quarterback. Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson and Justin Herbert play in the brutal AFC West, so that limits their teams’ chances of putting up a gaudy record.

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And while Brady coming out of retirement is a chance for the legend to add another notch to his belt, the downfield passing attack is usually not at the forefront of a team coached by Todd Bowles, and some growing pains should be expected. Of all the preliminary favorites, Allen is at the helm of the Super Bowl favorites and has a proven track record of putting up MVP-worthy numbers. The Bills quarterback is our favorite bet to take home the award at the current price.

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