The central government panel formed to explore the possibility of holding one nation one poll by clubbing the Vidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha elections together under the leadership of former President Ram Nath Kovind submitted its report to President Droupadi Murmu last week. It has recommended that Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections are together in 2029 in the first phase and then the panchayat and municipal elections within 100 days in the second phase.
Opposition parties have alleged that the BJP wants to nationalise the Vidhan Sabha election, entice people to vote on national issues and gain in the Vidhan Sabha polls riding on its general elections performance. The ruling BJP, on the other hand, argues that simultaneous polls will help reduce costs and improve governance as the Model Code of Conduct hampers development. The country’s resources will also be freed from a continuous election cycle, they argue.
Lok Sabha Elections 2024: FULL COVERAGE
One Nation One Election: The Process
If the Vidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha polls are held together, as a voter you would need to cast two votes, one to elect an MLA and the other to elect an MP.
Currently, you need to visit a booth, and in the polling room, you press one button on the EVM machine in favour of your choice of the candidate (MP/MLA). In case of simultaneous polls, your booth will be the same. It might impact turnout if it is not that way.
In the same polling room, you would now have two EVMs separately placed, to elect a leader of your choice for MLA and MP. A voter will have to press two buttons on the electronic voting machines (EVMs) — a Vidhan Sabha EVM to elect an MLA and a Lok Sabha EVM to elect an MP.
There is no consistent pattern with respect to which vote one needs to cast first, for state elections or for general elections. Some voters told me the first EVM was for Lok Sabha and the second for Vidhan Sabha, and vice versa, in my interaction with the voters of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha where the two elections are currently held simultaneously. Some don’t remember this point.
This aspect is very important from a psychological perspective as we will see below.
History Of Simultaneous Polls
One nation one election was the norm in the initial years. The first four elections, from 1952 to 1967, involved simultaneous elections for the Lok Sabha and state assemblies.
The trend was broken in 1971 when Lok Sabha elections were advanced by the Congress government, which after suffering a split in 1969 was looking to secure a majority on its own, riding on the populist appeal of then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.
In the current context, simultaneous polls happened in India for five states in 2014 — Telangana, Andhra, Odisha, Sikkim and Arunachal — and again in 2019 in all these states barring Telangana.
Except in Arunachal, it was a regional party that won the state election and went on to win the maximum number of seats in the general elections.
In terms of vote share, we see identical vote shares for top 3 parties in these states. The vote share in Lok Sabha was within the -2.5%/+2.5% of Vidhan Sabha vote share range in Andhra, Telangana and Odisha.
YSRCP, Jana Sena, and TDP in Andhra; BJD and Congress in Odisha; BRS, BJP-TDP alliance and Congress in Telangana had almost similar vote share in both Vidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha elections.
Split Voting
Split voting exhibits the tendency of people to vote differently in Vidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha elections as both are fought on different issues.
This is visible in many states in India, for example:
- People voted for BJP in Delhi in 2019 Lok Sabha elections but went with the AAP in Vidhan Sabha in 2020.
- People voted for the Congress in 2018 Vidhan Sabha elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, but BJP swept the Lok Sabha elections in 2019.
- People voted for the Congress-led UDF in Kerala in 2019 Lok Sabha polls, but went with the CPM-led LDF in state elections in 2021.
- People voted for NDA in Jharkhand in 2019 Lok Sabha elections brought the UPA to power in state that year.
However, split voting is not very apparent when Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections are held simultaneously. People tend to vote for the same party in both Vidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha elections when these elections are held together, as seen in the case of Telangana, Andhra, Odisha and Sikkim.
Who Benefits From One Election?
The 1967 results and the 2014/19 results of limited simultaneous polls show that the party that is stronger in states tends to get a benefit in the Lok Sabha seats as well because split voting pattern is not the norm.
A very important consideration in this entire puzzle is, which EVM is placed first for voting, the Vidhan Sabha EVM for election of MLA or the Lok Sabha EVM for election of MP. When a majority of the voters are pressing the button for the same party in both the EVMs, this aspect assumes significance.
The author is a political commentator.
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