This morning’s ONS release revised down borrowing estimates for 2025-26 by £3 billion. Borrowing over 2025-26 is now estimated at £129 billion, which is £3.7 billion below our March forecast.
Initial estimates for the month of April 2026 suggest that borrowing totalled £24.3 billion. This is £3.4 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. However, at this very early stage in the year this provides limited information on the likely path of borrowing over the rest of the year. Initial monthly estimates are highly provisional, particularly on departmental spending, and are likely to be revised subsequently.