Drivers saw some relief at the pump in recent weeks amid news of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, but the decline was short-lived as renewed conflict between the two nations pushed energy prices higher again.
The national average price of gasoline is now over $4 again, with current diesel prices hitting over $5 per gallon, according to AAA. Crude oil prices are back above $80 per barrel, and Brent crude oil is above $88.
Several factors are pushing prices up, with geopolitical tensions at the top of mind for consumers, politicians, and economists. Though experts say it’s important to look at the whole picture to better understand how gas prices are moving and why.
“It’s not just the U.S. and Iran and the Strait of Hormuz that’s impacting prices,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “In the last probably six weeks or so, we’ve seen multiple significant Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries.”
Alongside these external factors, seasonality can contribute to the natural ebb and flow of gas prices throughout the year.
“Generally speaking, we do tend to see gas prices decline in the fall, for the opposite reason of why they go up in the spring,” De Haan told Yahoo Finance. “In the fall, people stay closer to home, road trips wind down, people get back to their grind. Temperatures cool off, so there’s less outdoor activity, and then we also start to switch back to cheaper winter blends of gasoline in the fall.”
As for where gas prices could be headed? De Haan says it’s difficult to predict.
“A national average, I think, hopefully in the worst case would be $4.50, although if it really gets bad, it could head closer to $5.”
So, what will it take for gas prices to fall?
Experts say it will take time for consumers to feel the ripple effects of lower oil. Changes in crude-oil prices can affect gas prices fairly quickly; however, the comedown from a gasoline price spike isn’t always immediate.
While oil prices are a key driver of what you pay at the pump, they don’t tell the whole story. Other factors, such as refining costs, disruptions in gasoline distribution, and retailers’ price markups, can slow the rate at which gas prices return to normal after a spike.
“There is a saying that pump prices rise like a rocket and fall like a feather, and that holds,” said David Doherty, head of natural resources research at BloombergNEF. “It takes about three weeks for crude price rises to be fully felt in the price of gasoline prices, and it can take as much time for them to decline as refiners face an uncertain landscape when it comes to the price of crude, their main ingredient.”
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Measures are being taken to ease the burden of gas prices for Americans
Here at home, steps are being taken at the federal level to ease the financial burden of higher gas prices on everyday Americans.
This includes the government’s emergency EPA waivers, which allow nationwide sales of E15, gasoline blended with 15% ethanol, and the removal of all federal impediments to selling E10, gasoline blended with 10% ethanol, across the country. The EPA says this move will prevent disruption in America’s fuel supply by keeping E15 on the market and giving Americans more fuel options.
Additionally, in March, the Trump administration ordered the release of 172 million barrels of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) alongside the 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency, who unanimously agreed to release a total of 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves to address the global disruption.
New federal data shows that oil inventories in the SPR have fallen below Biden-era lows, hovering around levels last seen in the early 1980s. According to the Department of Energy, another 3 million barrels of oil were released during the week ending July 10.
Read more: What’s the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and can it help lower gas prices?
At the state level, some states are implementing fuel tax holidays to help residents trim their costs.
Read more: Trump backs gas tax holiday as pump prices rise. What drivers should know.
What you can do to protect your wallet now
There are several ways consumers can take matters into their own hands to save money on fuel.
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Join fuel rewards programs: If you frequent a particular gas station, see if it offers a fuel rewards program you can join to start accruing rewards or earn a few cents off each gallon.
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Comparison shop: Stopping at your nearest gas station may prove to be the most convenient option for gas, but it may not be the most cost-effective. Before you pump gas, shop around and compare stations to ensure you’re getting the best possible price.
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Get a credit card with gas rewards: If you’re in the market for a new credit card, consider opting for one that offers cash back or points every time you fill up to help minimize the toll of elevated gas prices on your budget.
Read more: How a gas card can help you navigate high prices at the pump