In the immediate aftermath of the withdrawal of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from the presidential race and his endorsement of Donald Trump, Nate Silver didn’t see much of a shakeup. In the last model he ran with Kennedy in the mix, Harris’ polling average was at 48%, and Trump’s was at 43.7%. A day later, Silver wrote Saturday, Harris was up to 48.8%, and Trump was up to 44.8. While Trump’s rise was slightly greater, he said Harris’ post-convention bump is just getting started and should add to her lead.

And Harris is still running at a roughly 53% chance to win the Electoral College count, he said. One factor that could limit the withdrawal’s effect in the end is the fact that Kennedy will still be on the ballot in a number of states of all persuasions: red, blue, and swing. About 30 counties in North Carolina have already printed ballots with his name on them, and it appears to be too late to remove him from Wisconsin’s ballot, for example. Silver’s piece can be found here. (More Election 2024 stories.)