Tariff Tensions Intensify, Stirring Volatility
Fresh U.S. tariff hikes on steel imports—jumping from 25% to 50%—have stirred concern across commodities markets. The move comes alongside a breakdown in the fragile tariff truce between Washington and Beijing.
Both sides are accusing each other of violating May’s trade pause, injecting uncertainty into global demand forecasts for industrial metals like silver. The tariff escalation has also elevated inflation concerns, which can support silver’s value proposition—but only if it feeds into Fed easing bets. As it stands, traders are struggling to price in the net impact.
Fed and Jobs Data Loom Large
The near-term outlook hinges on U.S. labor data due Friday. A strong nonfarm payrolls print would likely reinforce the Federal Reserve’s current rate hold, pressuring silver by boosting the dollar and Treasury yields.
The 10-year yield held at 4.456% Wednesday, while the 2-year was stable at 3.964%, reflecting a market in pause mode. Meanwhile, the Fed’s Beige Book and recent official commentary continue to reflect caution, particularly on trade risk.
Gold Stalls, Dimming Silver’s Momentum
Gold’s inability to push past its weekly high at $3392.31 has also capped enthusiasm in the silver market. While safe-haven flows initially supported precious metals, the lack of a decisive move in gold has left silver exposed. Gold’s path remains tied to Friday’s jobs data and dollar direction—key factors for silver as well, given their close correlation. If gold breaks higher, silver could follow; if not, traders may see prices slide toward support levels.
