What this mean to traders

The fascinating possibility emerges that both banks could be correct on different timelines. In 2025, Citigroup’s consolidation scenario may dominate as Chinese buying provides a $3,100 floor while record household holdings create a $3,500 ceiling. This range-bound frustration could exhaust bulls and set up attempted bearish breakdowns.

By 2026, JP Morgan’s scenario could materialize if recession risks crystallize, trade wars escalate, or Chinese buying expands beyond insurers. A decisive break above $3,500 could trigger momentum-driven moves toward $4,000 as more global institutions could capitulate.