Oil prices rebounded on Thursday after suffering their sharpest daily drop since April 2020, with ICE Brent rising more than 3% to trade back above USD 97/bbl. Prices rebounded as fighting in the Middle East continued, and the ceasefire outlook deteriorated, keeping uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz firmly in focus.
Optimism over the ceasefire faded after Tehran said several terms of the agreement had been breached.
Israel has launched its largest assault on Lebanon since the start of its invasion, while President Donald Trump said the US military would “remain in place in, and around Iran, until such time as the real agreement reached is fully complied with.” An Iranian delegation is due to arrive in Islamabad on Thursday night.
Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been halted, heightening supply risks. With a full reopening of the strait unlikely in the near term, oil prices are expected to remain supported, as disruptions linked to reduced output and refinery shutdowns will take time to unwind.
US inventory data was mixed. The EIA reported that crude stocks rose by 3.1m barrels last week, marking a seventh consecutive build and well above expectations for a 0.76m barrel increase. Total crude inventories reached 464.7m barrels, the highest level since June 2023, and stand around 2% above the five-year average. Stocks at Cushing edged up by 24k barrels to 31.5m barrels. Crude imports fell by 130k b/d to 6.3m b/d, while exports jumped by 628k b/d to 4.1m b/d.
In refined products, gasoline stocks fell by 1.6m barrels for an eighth consecutive week, while distillate inventories declined by 3.1m barrels, extending drawdowns into a second week and exceeding market expectations.
Meanwhile, European gas prices posted their steepest daily fall in more than two years. TTF futures dropped over 20% to an intraday low of EUR 42.5/MWh, the lowest level since 2 March, reflecting optimism around a potential temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are watching US-Iran talks closely, with no LNG tanker having transited the strait since the conflict began. EU gas storage has edged higher to 28.8% full, still well below 35% a year ago and the five-year average of 41.6%.