“The latest SONIA swap rates show the move clearly, with two-year money at 4.483%, three-year at 4.420% and five-year at 4.346%. That matters for mortgages because lenders price fixed rates off future funding costs, not simply where Bank Rate sits today.
“The immediate impact is likely to be further upward pressure on fixed mortgage rates, along with more short-notice withdrawals as lenders try to keep pace with fast-moving markets. Mortgage pricing does not wait for the Bank of England to come to fruition. If markets keep pricing in higher rates from here, lenders are likely to continue repricing in advance.”
Mendes pointed out that while comparisons with the uncertainty seen after the Liz Truss mini Budget were understandable, the cause of the current rate volatility is different.
“In 2022, the shock was driven by domestic fiscal credibility,” he explained. “This time, the pressure is coming from a sharp shift in rate expectations, higher swap pricing, and concern that policy may need to stay tighter for longer. That does not automatically mean a return to those peak mortgage rates, but it does raise the risk of further upward moves in the near term.
“For borrowers, the message is not to sit back and hope. Anyone buying should speak to a broker early, because lenders can move quickly and the best options do not always stay around for long. For those coming up to a remortgage, it is even more important. In most cases, a new rate can be secured three to six months before an existing deal ends. If rates improve before completion, there is often scope to switch to something lower, meaning you save a significant amount over the term of the mortgage. Waiting and hoping is not a strategy in a market like this.”