Recent market uncertainty should be viewed as a setback and not a complete change to the outlook of buy to let (BTL), a NatWest economist said.
Presenting at Mortgage Solutions’ The Buy to Let Event 2026, Philip Bartlett, senior economist at NatWest, said BTL was still a solid investment for landlords and brokers should take the opportunity to guide them through the uncertainty and help them secure the best deal.
He said the private rental sector was typically an “inflation-proof investment”, both in capital value and the rental income stream.
Bartlett said that as the UK did not build enough houses, this helped to further bolster the sector and created demand for rental housing.
Bartlett went on to say that “the value of the BTL market is at an all-time high”, adding: “The value of outstanding BTL mortgages has risen by between £100bn-112bn over the course of the last decade. It’s just huge.”
He said while it was true that BTL purchases were currently lower than during the first half of the last decade, and had never really recovered since tax changes first came in, “the market overall is a huge opportunity” as many deals were set to refinance this year.
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“Landlords are going to want to be shopping around for the best deals and rates and they will need advice,” he added.
He said it was a shame that geopolitical events had set the market back after a strong start to the year, but this should be viewed as an unwelcome setback, rather than a wholesale change to the market’s outlook.
He continued: “That fundamental case for BTL remains solid and there are some real opportunities, particularly in the refinance market.”
The market may be settling
He said this was one of the most volatile periods since the mini Budget, but added that there was some calm returning, and he hoped this would continue.
Bartlett said swaps were still dependent on news developments, so to “watch this space”.
Bartlett said the heightened uncertainty impacted how willing people were to spend or invest their money, and NatWest’s recent consumer surveys showed a decline in this sentiment, and was already affecting home buying demand.
“Those home purchase volumes, they are likely to be relatively muted for the next couple of quarters,” Bartlett said, adding this was particularly true for more leveraged deals where changes in finance costs had a bigger impact.
“Things are very uncertain, but given what we’re seeing, it would be reasonable to expect a significant but not world-changing reduction in flow,” he added.