It’s only been two weeks since I last wrote in these pages, but so much has happened since that even one of the most extraordinary public political spectacles in history is already old news.

The Oval Office showdown between Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy stunned any right-minded people watching, but incredibly, the US has since taken yet more steps to beat Ukraine into submission.

The most significant was the freezing of US military aid and intelligence sharing. Ukraine is being deprived of its ability to fight back against Russia’s full-scale invasion, while Moscow has yet to concede a single thing.

Perhaps it’s not surprising then that even British MPs and American lawmakers are questioning whether Trump is actually working for the Russians.

Regardless, here’s how the latest developments are being felt in Ukraine.

The Battlefield

There are potentially incredibly significant things developing on the battlefield this week as Ukraine’s positions in Russia’s Kursk Oblast come under intense pressure.

The situation appears to have deteriorated rapidly over the last couple of days, with Moscow’s forces making a concerted effort to target the logistics routes Ukraine uses to keep its troops supplied. 

Soldiers currently fighting there have described the situation as “critical” and said they face the threat of being cut off.

According to reports, the decision by Trump to stop sharing intelligence with Ukraine has been a major factor in allowing Russia to make such advances.

The potential political ramifications are massive — Ukraine launched its incursion into Kursk Oblast in August and has since desperately tried to hold on to some of the Russian territory to use as a bargaining chip in peace negotiations.

Last month, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy openly said that he hopes to trade Russian territory for Ukrainian lands occupied by Russian forces.

If Russia succeeds in pushing Ukraine out of Kursk Oblast, Kyiv loses one of its biggest cards in any upcoming talks.

Vulnerable Cities

It’s not only the front lines that have been affected by the US intelligence freeze — Ukraine relies on long-range radars to monitor the launch of Russian missile attacks, and some of this information comes from American Airborne Warning & Control System (AWACS) planes.

In the early hours of Thursday morning, Russia launched yet another mass missile and drone attack against civilian infrastructure in cities across Ukraine.

While the air raid alert system appeared to function, it’s not known if the response was degraded due to the intelligence freeze — successful missile hits were recorded in several areas of Ukraine.

Then there’s also the issue of the US military aid freeze — one of the most crucial components of US military aid are the interceptor missiles used for air defense systems like the Patriot.

This is one of the few systems capable of protecting cities like Kyiv against Russian ballistic missiles, and Ukraine only has a finite supply.

In Kyiv, people interviewed by the Kyiv Independent were understandably concerned about the possibility of Russian missiles landing without warning. 

“It will be a catastrophe,” one person said.

Domestic Politics

Trump and the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, have continued their efforts to delegitimize Zelenskyy and force Ukraine to hold elections (see my previous article for an explanation of why this isn’t possible or legal).

On Thursday, Musk said Ukraine “needs to hold an election“, adding: “Zelenskyy would lose by a landslide.”

As per usual, Musk offered no evidence to back up his claim. The most recent polling in Ukraine shows that Zelenskyy’s approval rating is only going up, rising to 68% in the wake of the Oval Office showdown last week.

Yet the campaign against Zelenskyy persists, and it was also reported this week that US officials have been meeting with Ukrainian opposition leaders, such as ex-president Petro Poroshenko and Yuliia Tymoshenko.

Zelenskyy beat Poroshenko in the 2019 election, and the rivalry has only heated up since then. In 2021, Poroshenko was charged with high treason for allegedly aiding Russian-controlled militants in occupied areas of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region.

Why is the US speaking with the opposition? Both Poroshenko and Tymoshenko insist there is nothing untoward about the talks, but let’s take a step back for a second.

The US is actively trying to delegitimize the democratically elected leader of Ukraine whilst calling for elections and courting the opposition, not to mention the Kremlin.

I’ll leave it to you to decide how to define that, but it’s worth noting one very important factor — the original aim of Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion was to topple Zelenskyy and install a pro-Russian president in Kyiv.

The Silver Lining

As things get increasingly dark for Ukraine, there is hope on the horizon.

At an emergency summit this week, European leaders agreed to implement several things that could potentially unlock hundreds of billions for increased defense spending and military aid for Ukraine.

The shifts happening in Brussels recently cannot be overstated — one EU official said that Europe “was finally waking up”, adding such discussions were unthinkable just a few weeks ago.

And there is another silver lining.  Despite the current mood in Ukraine and the general feeling that it’s impossible to predict exactly what will happen next but that it will almost certainly be negative for Ukraine, there’s a bizarre sense of relief in the air.

Yes, things are bad, and relations between Ukraine and the US are at a low point that no one thought imaginable just a few short weeks ago. But at least Ukraine knows where it stands now. And crucially, the same applies to Europe, so they’re not alone in this fight.

There are undoubtedly big question marks still over how much and how fast Europe can provide Ukraine with the support it needs, but at least the wheels appear to be in motion. 

As for what happens next? Who knows? There’s very little that surprises people anymore in Ukraine these days.