Rhodium nugget. Stock image.
Average prices for platinum and rhodium are expected to rise by 1% and 8%, respectively, this year, while palladium will see a 5% price reduction, consultancy Metals Focus said on Monday.
The basket price of the platinum group metals (PGMs), which are chiefly used in vehicle exhausts to neutralise harmful engine emissions, has been under pressure from expansion of electric vehicles in recent years, tightening miners’ margins.
While above-ground stocks remain plentiful for most PGMs metals, rhodium’s 2025 deficit will reduce these stocks by 23% to 349,000 troy ounces, their lowest in at least 40 years and equal to four months of demand, Metals Focus said in a report.
Rhodium, which has a history of sharp price swings, is up 20% so far this year due to lower production in South Africa.
“With part of these inventories locked in work-in-progress, rhodium remains susceptible to physical market squeezes,” Metals Focus said.
For palladium, above-ground stocks fell to 11.3 million ounces in 2024, the lowest level in over 50 years, but they are still able to cover 14 months of demand.
“Electrification and growing recycling supply are fuelling surplus expectations, undermining investors’ willingness to hold and prompting previously sticky inventories to return to market, weighing on (palladium) prices,” the consultancy added.
The platinum market is heading for its third year of deficit which would reach 529,000 troy ounces, reducing the above-ground stocks by 5% to 9.2 million, equal to 14 months of demand.
“This sizeable stock dampens the impact of deficits and will need further drawdown before (platinum) prices can materially benefit from it,” Metals Focus said.
In terms of miners’ profit and their production costs, the basket prices of six PGM metals will rise 4% to $1,347 per ounce this year, according to the consultancy, keeping some mine supply marginal on an all-in sustaining cost basis.
PGMs market balance and price forecast by Metals Focus (thousand troy ounces):
| 2024 | 2025F | Change 24/23 | Change 25/24 | |
| SUPPLY | ||||
| mine production: | ||||
| – platinum | 5,768 | 5,426 | 3% | -6% |
| – palladium | 6,556 | 6,192 | 1% | -6% |
| – rhodium | 704 | 669 | 6% | -5% |
| TOTAL SUPPLY: | ||||
| – platinum | 7,297 | 6,999 | 3% | -4% |
| – palladium | 9,345 | 9,164 | 3% | -2% |
| – rhodium | 974 | 954 | 6% | -2% |
| DEMAND | ||||
| automotive: | ||||
| – platinum | 3,106 | 3,052 | -3% | -2% |
| – palladium | 8,096 | 7,722 | -5% | -5% |
| – rhodium | 940 | 913 | -6% | -3% |
| TOTAL DEMAND: | ||||
| – platinum | 7,795 | 7,529 | -2% | -3% |
| – palladium | 9,752 | 9,419 | -4% | -3% |
| – rhodium | 1,151 | 1,059 | 13% | -8% |
| PHYSICAL SURPLUS/DEFICIT | ||||
| – platinum | -498 | -529 | -40% | 6% |
| – palladium | -407 | -254 | -62% | -37% |
| – rhodium | -178 | -105 | 76% | -41% |
| ABOVE-GROUND STOCKS | ||||
| – platinum | 9,715 | 9,186 | -5% | -5% |
| – palladium | 11,249 | 10,994 | -3% | -2% |
| – rhodium | 454 | 349 | -28% | -23% |
| AVERAGE PRICE | ||||
| – platinum | 956 | 970 | -1% | 1% |
| – palladium | 984 | 930 | -26% | -5% |
| – rhodium | 4,637 | 5,000 | -30% | 8% |
(Reporting by Polina Devitt; Editing by David Evans)
