Demand Risk Looms from China and Tariffs

At the same time, headwinds remain. Silver’s industrial exposure continues to weigh on its outlook, particularly as the U.S.–China trade conflict escalates. The latest round of tit-for-tat tariffs—145% duties from the U.S. and 125% retaliation from Beijing—has added new pressure on manufacturing sentiment.

China, a major consumer of silver for electronics, solar, and other applications, is showing signs of weakening demand. Without a turnaround in Chinese factory activity or trade relief, silver’s physical demand base remains vulnerable.

Dollar Weakness and Bond Market Stress Add Support

Broader macro conditions remain constructive for precious metals. The U.S. dollar hit a multi-year low against the Swiss franc and a six-month low versus the yen, while bond markets saw heavy outflows. The 10-year Treasury yield posted its steepest weekly rise in decades, a sign of fading confidence in traditional safe havens. These conditions are pushing capital into tangible assets like silver, reinforcing the bullish tone for now.

Outlook: Bullish Momentum Intact, But Demand Questions Remain

Silver’s +9.18% gain last week marks one of its strongest weekly performances this year, supported by safe-haven buying and macro pressure on the dollar and bonds. However, until there’s evidence of recovery in industrial demand—especially from China—the rally remains vulnerable to profit-taking.

As long as macro stress and gold strength persist, silver has room to extend higher, but sustained upside will require confirmation from the physical demand side. Caution is warranted near current levels.

Technically, despite a volatile trade last week, XAG/USD was able to overcome the weakness and closee on the bullish side of the 52-week moving average at $30.60. This indicator is new support.