Bleacher Report’s Expert Week 12 NFL Picks
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AP Photo/Andy Clayton-King
With every NFL team set to play in Week 12, bettors can bank a lot
of extra cash with some action on a full slate of games. Bleacher Report’s experts
delivered the goods a day early for anyone who wants to place wagers on early
lines in advance of the Thanksgiving Day triple-header.
NFL analysts Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski, Kris Knox and Maurice Moton, editor Wes O’Donnell and B/R Betting host of
“Winners Only Wednesdays” Greg Ivory have a tight competition going,
specifically at the top, with three panelists separated by one correct bet. With
that said, O’Donnell has jumped into second place while on a hot streak as of
Before you dive into Week 12 picks, take a look at where our experts
rank in the overall standings for the 2022 season, with last week’s records in parentheses.
1. Davenport: 84-75-5 (6-8)
2. O’Donnell: 83-76-5 (9-5)
3. Moton: 82-77-5 (4-10)
4. Ivory: 77-82-5 (5-9)
5. Knox: 75-84-5 (6-8)
6. Sobleski: 74-85-5 (8-6)
Consensus picks: 80-68-5 (4-7)
Lines are from DraftKings as
of Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info.
Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. Against the spread records are provided by Team Rankings.
Buffalo Bills (7-3) at Detroit Lions (4-6)
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Jamie Squire/Getty Images
DK Line: Bills -10
continuation of NFL tradition, the Detroit Lions will host the opening
Thanksgiving Day game. This year, they’ll go head-to-head with another team
that fields a top-eight scoring offense, so football fans could see these clubs
score a lot of points in the first contest of a triple-header.
Lions ride a three-game winning streak into this matchup with a defense that’s
forced seven turnovers during that span. Their defensive unit will face a tough test with quarterback Josh Allen and wide receivers
Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis capable of going up and down the field in a flash.
took a look at the Lions’ history of Thanksgiving Day games and liked what he
saw—enough for him to take them with the points.
“It’s not hard to imagine a scenario here in which the
Bills mash the Lions like a bowl of potatoes. Beat the stuffing out of them.
Give them the yamming of the year (OK, I went one too far). Three-game winning streak or not, the Lions aren’t great defensively, and the Bills will want to
set an early Week 12 pace in the AFC East.
“But the Lions have been playing better these past few weeks, and
Detroit has a tendency to hang around on Turkey Day. There has been just one
instance in the last decade in which the Lions wouldn’t have covered a spread this
big. Give me the home team and Thanksgiving tradition. Pass the gravy.”
Score Prediction: Bills 34, Lions 26
New York Giants (7-3) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
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AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn
DK Line: Cowboys -9.5
their traditional midday Thanksgiving spot, the Dallas Cowboys will host the
New York Giants, whom they beat 23-16 in Week 3 with Cooper Rush under center.
should feel good about a chance to sweep their season series with the Giants after
their 40-3 road win over the Minnesota Vikings (8-2) last week. Quarterback
Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott are healthy, and Tony Pollard
looks like an ascending game-breaking playmaker out of the backfield, logging 63
carries for 409 yards and four touchdowns on the ground along with 12 catches
for 164 yards and two scores over Dallas’ last four games.
week, the Lions throttled the Giants 31-18. In that game, Big Blue
turned the ball over three times, and several
down with injuries. The Cowboys’ No. 1-ranked scoring defense and seventh-ranked
scoring offensive attack could overwhelm head coach Brian Daboll’s squad on
O’Donnell expects the Giants to respond with their backs against the wall.
“This is a
recipe for disaster for the New York Giants. It’s a road game on a short week at a
division rival that has already beaten them this season without Dak Prescott. The Giants lost the last semblance of a dynamic threat not
named Saquon Barkley after Wan’Dale Robinson’s unfortunate ACL tear. Top
cornerback Adoree’ Jackson, who was injured while inexplicably returning a punt in last
week’s game, is also out.
point to the Cowboys running wild offensively while making life miserable for
Daniel Jones, who was sacked five times and absorbed 12 QB hits in their last
meeting. Talent-wise, New York loses the tale of the tape in nearly every position
battle of this game. And all of that is why I’m riding with Big Blue.
Everything is stacked against the Giants. Give me the points.”
Score Prediction: Cowboys 31,
New England Patriots (6-4) at Minnesota Vikings (8-2)
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AP Photo/Stacy Bengs
DK Line: Vikings -3
the third game of this year’s Thanksgiving triple-header, the Minnesota Vikings
will host the New England Patriots in a matchup between two teams that probably
come into this contest with completely different attitudes.
one side, the Patriots will attempt to win their fourth consecutive outing.
They’ll face a Vikings squad that lost by 37 points at home last Sunday.
hasn’t soured on the Vikings, though.
should resist the urge to sell stock in the Vikings after their 40-3 loss
to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 11. Typically, when a good team endures that type
of embarrassment on its home turf, it comes out with razor-sharp focus
and produces a quality performance in the following outing. The Vikings remain
at U.S. Bank Stadium for the Thanksgiving Day nightcap, and they’ll bounce back
against the Patriots.
the Patriots have won three consecutive games, but they beat the New York Jets
in two of those contests—a squad that’s noncommittal to its second-year quarterback in Zach
Wilson. Between those division victories, New England dominated the
Indianapolis Colts (26-3), who were starting second-year signal-caller Sam Ehlinger for the
second time in his career.
let the Patriots’ record fool you. They’re still struggling on offense with the
20th-ranked scoring attack and the 25th spot in total yards. New England won’t
keep up with Minnesota as the NFC North club tries to shake off its worst showing
of the 2022 season.”
Score Prediction: Vikings 26, Patriots 20
Chicago Bears (3-8) at New York Jets (6-4)
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Mike Stobe/Getty Images
DK Line: Jets -4.5
the Chicago Bears and New York Jets have a big question mark at the quarterback
coach Matt Eberflus called Justin Fields day-to-day with a shoulder injury. Per
NFL Network’s Ian
Rapoport, the Bears signal-caller suffered a dislocated left shoulder. Trevor
Siemian is the primary backup in Chicago.
for the Jets, lead skipper Robert Saleh hasn’t committed to starting Zach Wilson after his abysmal
performance (nine completions out of 22 attempts for 77 yards) against the Patriots last week.
sorted all of this out and took the squad with the better defense.
Fields came into this game healthy, the Bears would’ve been the easy choice,
but that’s not the case,” Moton said. “Even if he plays, don’t expect him to be
the same dynamic signal-caller you saw in the past several weeks.
Green have a top-10 defense in total yards and scoring, so the unit should have
a strong performance against a banged-up quarterback or a backup in Siemian. The
Jets need Wilson to make easy throws and avoid turnovers for the offense to
chip away at the league’s 27th-ranked scoring defense.
the Jets choose to start Mike White or Joe Flacco, wideouts Garrett Wilson and
Elijah Moore and tight end Tyler Conklin would become viable pass-catching
threats. Regardless, New York should be able to run the ball effectively
against the Bears’ 29th-ranked run defense. Michael Carter and James Robinson
should have a big day on the ground to carry the Jets to a victory by at least
Score Prediction: Jets 23, Bears 17
Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) at Tennessee Titans (7-3)
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AP Photo/Morry Gash
DK Line: Bengals -1.5
teams played in the 2021 divisional round of the playoffs, and the Cincinnati
Bengals won that matchup thanks in large part to Evan McPherson, who made four field
goals, including a pair of 52-plus-yard kicks in a tight 19-16 finish.
clubs have picked up steam headed into this contest, though the Titans look exceptionally
impressive with seven wins in their last eight outings.
added context to the tale of the tape between these AFC playoff contenders, and
he went against the consensus.
“Aside from some unexpected witchcraft against
the Cleveland Browns on Halloween, the Bengals won four of their last five contests
by scoring an average of 36 points per game. Comparatively,
the Titans haven’t scored 30 points once this season. To be fair, Tennessee’s
scoring defense ranks eighth overall by allowing 18.5 points per contest, but the
unit is vulnerable through the air with the league’s 30th-ranked pass defense.
“When the Bengals are rolling, their aerial
attack is nearly impossible to stop. To make matters worse for Tennessee, a
previously hobbled Ja’Marr Chase (hip) will practice this week, and the elite vertical threat could play Sunday.”
Score Prediction: Titans 27,
Atlanta Falcons (5-6) at Washington Commanders (6-5)
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Todd Kirkland/Getty Images
DK Line: Commanders -4
pair of surprisingly competitive teams (in the standings) with similar records will square off. Both have a shot to win a division in the NFC.
a limited passing attack (ranked 31st) with Marcus Mariota under center, the Atlanta
Falcons have found ways to win with their third-ranked ground game that
features four ball-carriers (including Mariota) with at least 335 rushing
for the Washington Commanders, head coach Ron Rivera has named
quarterback Taylor Heinicke the starter over Carson Wentz for the foreseeable future.
They’ve activated Pro Bowl edge-rusher Chase Young (torn ACL and MCL) from
injured reserve, and he could make his 2022 debut Sunday.
Knox thinks the Commanders will continue their winning ways with Heinicke, he
expects the Falcons to cover the spread in rainy conditions.
“Unlike my picks, the
Commanders are trending in the right direction and have won five of their last six
games,” he said. “I think there’s a very good chance that they make it six of seven,
but I think we’ll also see a very close game between these clubs.
defensive deficiency is against the pass, but I don’t expect Heinicke to
air it out Sunday. We’ll see rain in the forecast this weekend, and FedEx Field
isn’t exactly known for pristine conditions. I anticipate a low-scoring,
somewhat sloppy game between teams that desperately want to win with the run.”
Score Prediction: Commanders 23,
Denver Broncos (3-7) at Carolina Panthers (3-8)
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Dustin Bradford/Getty Images
DK Line: Broncos
Before the Denver Broncos’ Week 11
matchup with the Las Vegas Raiders, head coach Nathaniel Hackett gave
up play-calling duties to quarterbacks coach and passing game
coordinator Klint Kubiak.
Russell Wilson had a decent outing
against the Silver and Black, completing 24 of 31 passes for 247 yards, though the
Broncos made a poor decision to throw the ball, which went incomplete, as
opposed to milking the clock late in regulation. As a result, the Raiders had
more than enough time to tie the game with a field goal to force overtime.
On Monday, Denver released running back
Melvin Gordon III, who fumbled inside the Raiders’ 5-yard line last week. By
the way, according to NFL Network’s Tom
Pelissero, Broncos running back Chase Edmonds will miss multiple weeks with
a high ankle sprain.
Denver has an underwhelming passing
attack (ranked 15th with the second-fewest touchdowns). The team’s backfield features Latavius Murray, whom the team signed from the New Orleans Saints’
practice squad in October, and Marlon Mack, who signed with the club a month
ago. Don’t expect this squad to score a lot of points—even against the lowly Carolina
Despite all of that, Moton backed the
“With Kubiak as the play-caller last
week, Wilson posted his best passer rating (99.8) since Week 4 (also against
the Raiders), which provides some hope that the Broncos’ passing attack will improve over the next several weeks,” he said.
“Meanwhile, the Panthers have tabbed quarterback Sam Darnold as their starter. He hasn’t played since the preseason because of a high ankle sprain.
“Bettors should take the Broncos in a low-scoring game. Up
against Denver’s third-ranked scoring defense, Carolina may fail to record a double-digit
point total in consecutive weeks.”
Consensus: Broncos -2.5
Score Prediction: Broncos 17, Panthers 13
Houston Texans (1-8-1) at Miami Dolphins (7-3)
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AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee
DK Line: Dolphins -13
Miami Dolphins may have to prepare for the unknown headed into this matchup.
Monday, during a press conference,
Houston Texans head coach Lovie Smith said the team will make changes going
forward. That may result in a start for quarterback Kyle Allen over Davis
Mills, who’s thrown for 11 touchdowns and a league-leading 11 interceptions.
the Texans must change something about their method, but Moton doesn’t think it
matters as they go against an offensive juggernaut in Miami.
head coach Mike McDaniel can toss his hat in the ring of Coach of the Year
candidates. With two more wins, Miami can match its win total from the 2021
campaign. Under the first-year lead skipper’s tutelage, Tua Tagovailoa has grown
exponentially as he leads the league in touchdown rate (7.3 percent of his pass
attempts result in a score), yards gained per pass attempt (9.1), yards per
completion (12.9), passer rating (118.4) and QBR (83.1).
course, wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle deserve some credit for
Tagovailoa’s impressive passing numbers, but McDaniel put the pieces in place
for the Dolphins’ sixth-ranked scoring offense. By the way, Miami added running
back Jeff Wilson Jr. before the Nov. 1 trade deadline, and he’s brought life to the team’s
ground attack, rushing for 170 yards and a touchdown in two contests since the
move to Miami.
had an extra (bye) week to game-plan for this matchup, which sets the stage for
a blowout victory at home. If Tagovailoa doesn’t throw for 250-plus yards and
multiple touchdowns, Raheem Mostert and Wilson will get the job done on the
ground against the Texans’ run defense, which allows the most yards per game.”
Score Prediction: Dolphins 34, Texans 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) at Cleveland Browns (3-7)
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AP Photo/Alex Menendez
DK Line: Buccaneers -3.5
a rocky stretch through October, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers may have turned the
corner. Before their Week 11 bye, they strung together a couple of
wins with the last one against the Seahawks in Munich.
the Cleveland Browns have been outscored by their opponents 70-40 over the past
believes in Tampa Bay’s turnaround, and he can see the Buccaneers
offense clicking on all cylinders against a bottom-tier defense.
weeks ago, Tampa Bay found
its ground attack with rookie third-rounder Rachaad White. He rushed for 105 yards on 22 carries and iced the game with an 18-yard
run on the final possession. The Buccaneers will likely feed him
and Leonard Fournette to poke holes in the Browns’ 23rd-ranked run defense,
which has allowed the third-most touchdowns in the league this season.
Buccaneers haven’t scored a ton of points (27th leaguewide), but among quarterback Tom Brady, who has a plethora of playmakers at wide receiver in
Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Russell Gage and Julio Jones, and White coupled with
Fournette, they shouldn’t have a problem covering a 3.5-point
spread against the Browns’ 30th-ranked scoring defense.”
Score Prediction: Buccaneers 28, Browns 23
Baltimore Ravens (7-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7)
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Scott Taetsch/Getty Images
DK Line: Ravens -4
the AFC North, the Baltimore Ravens will attempt to win their fifth consecutive
game in a matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are still trying to
find their way under new head coach Doug Pederson.
the Jaguars need quarterback Trevor Lawrence to make significant strides if they are to become a playoff contender, they have relied heavily on his former Clemson
teammate Travis Etienne Jr. The second-year running back has rushed for
109-plus yards in three of Jacksonville’s last four outings.
Etienne will go against the Ravens’ third-ranked run defense, Moton took the
points with the Jaguars.
Ravens have one of the best records in the AFC, but they’re not a dominant team,” he said. “This season, they have let opponents hang around. Baltimore
has won three of its last five contests by five points or fewer. Though the Ravens
beat the Panthers last week, they were tied 3-3 in the fourth quarter in a defensive slugfest.
“The Jaguars have had time to regroup with a bye and can slow down the run-heavy Ravens with their 10th-ranked
“Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson doesn’t have prolific playmaking wide receivers to
attack the Jacksonville secondary. Over the past four weeks, he has thrown for just
three touchdowns with one interception. Tight end Mark Andrews poses the only consistent
threat; wideout Devin Duvernay has two catches for eight yards over the last two games. With running back Gus Edwards still on the mend from a
hamstring injury, Baltimore won’t be able to bully its way to a big victory.
Jaguars lose by a field goal at home.”
Score Prediction: Ravens 26, Jaguars 21
Las Vegas Raiders (3-7) at Seattle Seahawks (6-4)
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AP Photo/Gary McCullough
DK Line: Seahawks -3.5
Seattle Seahawks have had extra time to mull over their mistakes from a 21-16 loss to the
Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Munich and prepare for the Las Vegas Raiders.
into Week 12, Geno Smith leads the league in completion rate (72.8 percent), and
he’s thrown for 17 touchdowns and just four interceptions in 10 starts. Seattle running back Ken Walker III looks ready for the
spotlight, having rushed for 587 yards and seven touchdowns with 103 receiving yards.
Seahawks could face a tough test in the Raiders, who have a
strong quarterback-wide receiver duo in Derek Carr and Davante Adams. They connected
on a game-winning touchdown against the Denver Broncos on Sunday.
remains skeptical of Smith’s run, and he’s not ready to dismiss the
Raiders despite their poor record.
the most disappointing teams of the season, the Raiders got a morale-boosting
overtime win last week in Denver, and I’m willing to roll with that momentum,” he said. “Seattle
is coming off its bye week, and it’s unclear if Smith can keep his magical
run going. He hasn’t started this many games since his second season in 2014, and I’m still just not a believer.
Raiders need a near-miracle to find the postseason, but I don’t think Carr
and Co. will roll over. I’ll take the points and would not be surprised at
all to see them win outright.”
Score Prediction: Seahawks 30,
Los Angeles Chargers (5-5) at Arizona Cardinals (4-7)
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AP Photo/Kyusung Gong
DK Line: Chargers -4.5
In their previous outing,
the Arizona Cardinals couldn’t hang with the San Francisco 49ers in Mexico
City, going down 38-10 with Colt McCoy as the starter for Kyler
Per ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, the Cardinals may hold Murray out until after their Week
13 bye, which would allow McCoy to log a third consecutive start. If
that’s the case, the Los Angeles Chargers should be able to cover a 4.5-point spread.
Our entire panel
picked the Chargers without hesitation. Moton spoke on behalf of the group’s unanimous consensus.
“Even though wide
receiver Mike Williams reinjured his ankle early in last week’s game against Kansas City, the Chargers got wideout Keenan Allen back on the field
percent of the offensive snaps,” he said. “The latter didn’t show any lingering
effects from a hamstring injury, hauling in five passes for 94 yards. Meanwhile,
Joshua Palmer caught eight passes for 106 yards and two touchdowns.
“The Chargers have enough
offensive firepower to pierce the Cardinals’ 23rd-ranked pass defense. The Arizona offense isn’t the same without Murray, who can make plays
with his legs, so don’t bet your money
on McCoy and Co. to keep pace with a quality opponent. We made that
mistake with our consensus pick last
Score Prediction: Chargers 28,
Los Angeles Rams (3-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-2)
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Harry How/Getty Images
DK Line: Chiefs -14.5
In this matchup, the
Los Angeles Rams may not have quarterback Matthew Stafford as he goes through the concussion protocol for the second straight week. After Stafford exited Sunday, Bryce Perkins completed five of 10 passes for
64 yards and took three sacks.
Cooper Kupp (high ankle sprain) and with Stafford’s status in some doubt, the Rams don’t
have much of a chance to keep pace with the Kansas City Chiefs’ No. 1-ranked
scoring offense unless their defense has one of its best performances. Even
then, Los Angeles seems like a long shot to put up a fight.
With the exception
of O’Donnell, our crew laid the points with Kansas City. Moton explained why he
felt comfortable in his decision to back the Chiefs with a 14.5-point spread.
“If any team can
cover a massive line against a lesser opponent, Kansas City can do it,” he said. “This
season, the Chiefs have a couple of 21-plus-point road wins against the Cardinals and 49ers. Even though they’re 1-3 against
the spread as a home favorite, they will face an opponent
without its top offensive playmaker in Kupp and with Perkins or John
Wolford in place of Stafford. By the way, in an unexpected move, Los Angeles released its leading rusher, Darrell Henderson Jr., on Tuesday.
“The Saints’ 15th-ranked scoring offense racked up 27 points against the Rams defense with Andy Dalton at the helm. As the maestro for the top-ranked offense, Patrick Mahomes will be like a
shark that smells blood in the water at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas
City shellacks Los Angeles to cover the spread.”
Score Prediction: Chiefs 34, Rams
New Orleans Saints (4-7) at San Francisco 49ers (6-4)
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AP Photo/Butch Dill
DK Line: 49ers -9
off a 38-10 victory over the Arizona Cardinals in Mexico City, the San
Francisco 49ers are back home to host the New Orleans Saints, who just avoided a
three-game skid with a 27-20 win over the injury-riddled Rams.
Saints head coach Dennis Allen decided to stick with quarterback Andy
Dalton as the starter over Jameis Winston, and that paid off. The 12th-year
signal-caller finished 21-of-25 passing for 260 yards and three touchdowns.
will face a stingy defense that hasn’t allowed more than 16 points in any
of the team’s last three outings. San Francisco won two of those contests by 17
or more points.
sided with the heavy home favorite.
“Laying this many points
two weeks in a row with the 49ers is a tad unsettling—San Francisco has no
shortage of offensive firepower, but Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t going to throw four
touchdown passes two weeks in a row. With that said, the Niners are getting
healthy on both sides of the ball and showed impressive balance in curb-stomping
the Cardinals on Monday.
“The Saints under Dalton really aren’t measurably better than the Cardinals, and New Orleans is 0-4 against the spread in its last four games on grass. Niners cruise in the first contest of a three-game homestand.”
Score Prediction: 49ers 27, Saints
Green Bay Packers (4-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)
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AP Photo/Matt Ludtke
DK Line: Eagles -7
Green Bay Packers have had a few extra days to prepare for the NFL’s win-loss leader in the Philadelphia
Eagles, who squeaked past the Indianapolis Colts with a 17-16 win on Sunday.
Under Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are in an unfamiliar position well outside the playoff picture with the NFC North title almost completely out of reach during the week of Thanksgiving.
positive note, Rodgers has built a rapport with wideout Christian Watson over
the last couple of weeks. Since Week 10, the rookie second-rounder has hauled
in eight passes for 155 yards and five touchdowns.
most of our crew believes the Packers will score enough to remain within one
possession of the Eagles, Sobleski had a different thought because of Philadelphia’s
“Could this be as simple
as picking the NFL’s best team (record-wise) over an opponent that’s lost six
of its last seven games? The real question revolves around the spread, as the
Eagles must make this a two-score game,” he said. “Rodgers is experiencing
the NFL’s first back-to-back MVP hangover campaign, since he ranks outside the top
15 in passing yards per contest, yards per attempt and QBR.
“The Packers are far
more effective when they smartly employ both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon in the
running game. With that said, the Eagles reinforced their second-ranked defense
last week with the shrewd signings of defensive tackles Linval Joseph and
Ndamukong Suh—both of whom played well on a short week against the Colts.”
Score Prediction: Eagles 28,
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7) at Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1)
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Andy Lyons/Getty Images
DK Line: Colts -2.5
an interim head coach, Jeff Saturday is 1-1, and the Colts have shown a
competitive fire in both contests after a 26-3 loss to the New England Patriots
in Week 9.
decision to reinstate quarterback Matt Ryan as the starter over Sam Ehlinger
has stabilized the offense, and running back Jonathan Taylor has reached
paydirt in back-to-back games after going scoreless in five consecutive outings.
the Pittsburgh Steelers have struggled to win games with rookie quarterback Kenny
Pickett, who is 2-4 as a starter and has thrown for 1,426 yards and three touchdowns against eight interceptions with a 65.4 percent completion rate in seven contests. He has yet to throw for multiple touchdowns in a game this season.
had a split decision for this Monday Night Football showdown, though the
Colts—under Saturday’s tutelage—have gained Knox’s trust.
“I don’t know if
Indianapolis’ decision to hire Saturday will pay long-term dividends, but
the Colts have been a more disciplined, driven and physical team over
the last two weeks,” he said. “They nearly upset the Eagles in Week 11 and have allowed fewer than 21 points in four of their last five
games. I don’t expect to see a ton of scoring from Pickett and Co. in this one.
“My concern is T.J.
Watt and the Pittsburgh pass rush against an inconsistent line and a
statuesque Ryan. There’s a chance Indy’s game plan will get wrecked and the Steelers defense scores a few points itself. However, I trust
Ryan just enough against arguably the worst secondary in the league to take the
Colts by a slim margin at home.”
Score Prediction: Colts 23,
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