hit a new all-time high of $118,396 on the last working day of the week. But unlike earlier rallies driven by hype, this rise looks more careful, more planned, and backed by institutions.

Institutional Buying Reaches Record Levels

The most striking reason behind the rise is strong demand from institutions. Capital flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs—especially in the US—shows that the market has shifted. ETFs saw a total inflow of $1.18 billion in yesterday’s trading. For instance, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ:) alone reached a trading volume of $5 billion, a clear sign that Bitcoin is now a key part of institutional portfolios.

On the other hand, interest from individual investors remains low. This suggests the current uptrend is not driven by speculation, but by more stable, professional capital.

US President Donald Trump has also played a major role in the uptrend that has continued since April. After he took office, there was a clear shift in US crypto policy. One key step was the strategic crypto reserve order signed in March, which laid the groundwork for long-term plans in the sector. The government also appointed more crypto-friendly figures—Paul Atkins to lead the SEC and David Sacks to a senior role in the White House—signaling support for positive crypto regulation.

While these developments sparked a bullish trend in Bitcoin starting in April, global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions also influenced the market. As a result, the cryptocurrency saw a slowdown in May and June. In July, with no fresh negative news from global markets and growing talk that the Fed might cut interest rates sooner than expected, conditions improved—giving Bitcoin room to rise again.

On-Chain Metrics Point to a Healthy Bitcoin Market

Despite Bitcoin’s recent sharp rise, data from CryptoQuant suggests the market has not yet overheated. The rally appears more cautious, as short-term activity is being led by long-term investors. This shift reduces the pressure from potential profit-taking.

Miner behavior is also supporting the price increase. CryptoQuant’s Miner Position Index, which tracks miner activity, has dropped—showing that miners are holding onto their Bitcoin instead of selling. This trend suggests lower supply pressure, helping the price rise on a more stable footing.

Bitcoin Technical Setup

As of July, Bitcoin has broken out of the downward channel that began at the May peak. The price stayed above the upper boundary of this channel for the past week, forming a strong base in that area.

In the second half of this week, a sharp rise in buying volume helped Bitcoin quickly move past its previous high of around $111,900. This pushed the price into the long-watched Fibonacci expansion zone between $114,000 and $125,000.

Looking ahead, the $114,600 level may act as a new support line. If Bitcoin stays above this level, upward momentum could continue. The next key resistance is around $119,000, marked by the Fib 1.414 level. A break above this could open the path toward $125,000. However, if $114,000 fails to hold due to profit-taking, the price may pull back toward the previous high near $111,950. Building a solid base between $112,000 and $114,000 will be important for a healthier long-term rise.

Technical indicators also support the current uptrend. Short-term exponential moving averages (EMAs) are pointing upward, confirming the positive momentum. On the daily chart, the Stochastic RSI remains in overbought territory, showing strong ongoing demand.

In summary, Bitcoin’s current rally stands apart from the overly speculative bull runs of the past. As of 2025, institutional demand is leading the way, and a more supportive regulatory environment is helping create steadier price action. If institutional inflows continue and individual investors begin to enter the market, Bitcoin could move toward the $150,000–$200,000 range projected for the end of the year.

****