Wednesday , October 4 2023

Brent Crude – Relentless Oil Rally Showing No Signs of Exhaustion

 | Sep 18, 2023 04:12PM ET

  • Saudi and Russian cuts continue to drive the price higher
  • Could a cooler economy push it back?
  • Momentum indicators continue to support the rally

This Oil rally has been relentless and I’m not seeing any signs of exhaustion yet. A 15% rally in the space of around three weeks to trade at levels not seen since last November and not far from triple figures, it’s been an impressive move and there could be more to come.

Saudi Arabia and Russia have been very effective in squeezing a tight market that much further to create a situation in which oil prices are trading well above the zone they’ve been stuck around for much of the year. You would imagine there’ll be a limit to their ambitions, not to mention their desire to continue the additional voluntary cuts but that may well depend on the demand side over the coming months.

They’re committed until the end of the year but if demand softens as those additional cuts expire then the price could cool somewhat. The group has been heavily criticized over the last year for what were labelled unjustified cuts but for the bulk of that time, the price hasn’t risen as much as thought. Is this a sign of cuts going a step too far or will demand weaken to the point of prices pulling back again?

h2 No lack of momentum in the rally/h2

The key to this chart after such a powerful rally is the momentum indicators at the bottom and neither the stochastic nor MACD are showing signs of divergence.

Get The News You Want

Read market moving news with a personalized feed of stocks you care about.

Get The App

Source – OANDA on Trading View

That doesn’t mean the price can’t fall or correct lower but it does suggest the rally is healthy, even after such a large move. If the rally does continue, it will be interesting to see whether divergences form on the approach to $100. Psychology can often play a role in the markets and that could be the case again.

This is also where the price failed last October and November barring a couple of brief moments above. $98 may also be an area of interest having been so at times in the past, although at that point I expect all of the talk will be about whether it can breach triple figures once more, and if so, where next?

Original Post

Source link

Check Also

Investing in BLD Plantation Bhd (KLSE:BLDPLNT) five years ago would have delivered you a 59% gain

When we invest, we’re generally looking for stocks that outperform the market average. And while …

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *




Get our latest downloads and information first. Complete the form below to subscribe to our weekly newsletter.


    Input this code: captcha