- More companies are signaling a weaker outlook for consumer spending.
- Downbeat forecasts are weighing on everything from airlines to retailer stocks this week.
- Consumer strength has been a key pillar of the post-pandemic economy.
A growing number of firms are signaling a weaker outlook for US consumer spending, putting a key pillar of economic support in focus for investors this year.
Disappointing outlooks from a range of companies show expectations for strong consumer spending have ebbed after years of US shoppers helping to prop up the post-pandemic economy.
Airlines and retailers are the latest casualties of mounting calls for a weaker consumer as Wall Street positions for a possible economic slowdown.
Delta, Southwest, and Jet Blue each cited macroeconomic uncertainty as a leading reason for lowered earnings forecasts this week. A weaker outlook for travel demand has slashed first-quarter revenue expectations. Delta fell as much as 8.7% Tuesday morning.
Losses, though, have been even heavier among big-box retailers that are seeing a similar slowdown in consumer spending.
Kohl’s sank 23% by around midday on Tuesday. For the full year, the retailer expects net sales to drop 5%-7%. Earnings per share are forecast between $0.10-$0.60, well below consensus estimates.
Meanwhile, disappointing earnings projections from Dick’s pushed the athletic retailer’s stock down almost 6% in Tuesday’s session.
Both are just the latest examples in a string of downbeat consumer signals. Last month, retail stocks were rocked by Walmart’s underwhelming fiscal year outlook, suggesting a looming spending unwind.
The notion of a spending pullback has ripped into the stock market over recent weeks, adding to economic pressures that have pushed the benchmark S&P 500 index to drop 9.4% from a February high.
Monday marked the index’s most painful day this year — among notable losers were stocks exposed to consumer lending, such American Express, Capital One, and Discover.
While Americans’ buying spree has been a source of economic and market strength since 2022, consumer endurance is petering out: stubborn inflation, high interest rates, and the threat of tariffs are pushing spenders into a cost-saving mentality.
Even before this year’s economic uncertainty caused recessionary fears to spike, consumers were already signaling lower spending intentions in the first quarter.
Month-to-month sales fell 0.22% in February, excluding automobiles and gasoline, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor.