Condominium sales in Canada’s two major markets continue to fall, leading to increasing supply and the cancellation of dozens of condo projects, despite a nationwide push to dramatically increase the construction of new homes.
“Both markets (Toronto and Vancouver) are significantly oversupplied, specifically in the condo segment,” says Adil Dinani, a sales representative with Royal LePage West in Vancouver. “In Vancouver, we are sitting at listing inventory at the highest we’ve seen in 10 years.”
From 2022 until the first quarter of 2025, condominium sales fell 75 per cent in Toronto and 37 per cent in Vancouver, according to the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). In Toronto, condo sales are down 21.7 per cent year-over-year and inventory stands at more than 20,000 units.
“I believe this period in the condo market is going to be a challenge,” said Dinani. “And I believe it will take a few years to clean up.”
But sellers like Evelyn Contino don’t have a few years to hang onto properties. The GTA-based real estate lawyer has been trying to sell her condo in downtown Toronto since November and has received no offers.
“My ex-partner and I have substantially reduced the price of this property and still nothing,” she said. “It really is a tumultuous time in the real estate market.”
Buyer’s market
That so many units are sitting on the market for months during a national housing crisis is a dichotomy experts chalk up to a variety of factors. While purchase prices in major markets like Toronto and Vancouver have softened, would-be buyers appear willing to wait to see if prices drop even further. Interest rates have also come down, but concerns about the global economy have gone up.
“You have a lot of would-be home buyers, people who have every intention of purchasing a home, but they’ve put that decision on hold because they want to see where the economy is headed,” said Jason Mercer, chief market analyst with the Toronto Region Real Estate Board (TRREB).
Condo construction craters
New condo construction is also sharply down, hitting its lowest level since 1996, according to Urbanation, which tracks the condo market in the GTA. With pre-construction sales cratering, developers are struggling to sell enough pre-construction units and cannot secure financing for new projects. Urbanation says at least 28 projects totalling nearly 6,000 units have been put on hold, cancelled, put into receivership or converted to rentals since 2024.
But like every cycle, insiders predict this one will sort itself out.
“The market will get better and sentiment will improve,” said Dinani. “What’s going to happen is we will probably be in a period of an under-supplied market.”
That’s one of the reasons Mercer says the industry needs to find ways to keep building new homes.
“We can’t take our foot off the gas,” he said. “Right now, we are seeing a lot of supply in the resale market and that could potentially give people licence to say, ‘hey, we don’t have to worry so much about housing supply, at least in the short term.’”
He warns that would be a mistake, especially given the CMHC says 3.5 million homes need to be built by 2030 to restore housing affordability.
“Five years down the road, we are going to be concerned about the lull in construction, because we haven’t seen the housing start today,” Mercer warns.
