🔸1.WPI DATA MONDAY, JUNE 16:
Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Inflation: Expected to provide insights into wholesale inflation trends, following a May 2025 CPI inflation report showing a 5.4% year-on-year increase.
🔸2. WEEKLY EXPIRY THURSDAY, JUNE 19:
Weekly Nifty Futures & Options (F&O) Expiry: The weekly expiry of Nifty F&O contracts is likely to increase volatility, especially in banking and large-cap stocks. Recent data shows high Call Open Interest at 24,800 and 25,000 strikes (resistance) and Put Open Interest at 24,600 and 24,500 strikes (support).
3.🔸IPO ACTIVITY
The Tea Post IPO, with its Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) filed with SEBI, and Jainik Power and Cables IPO (allotment status pending) may attract investor attention.
🔸4. U.S.-CHINA TRADE TALKS (ONGOING)
Trade negotiations between U.S. and Chinese officials, which began earlier in June in London, are ongoing. Investors are watching for updates on tariffs, particularly on rare earth minerals and technology exports, following temporary Chinese approvals for rare earth exports and Boeing’s jet deliveries to China. Progress could boost market sentiment, while setbacks may increase volatility, especially in tech and industrial sectors.
Positive developments could lift global indices.
🔸5. G7 SUMMIT (JUNE 15–17, CANADA)
The G7 Leaders’ Summit in Canada will focus on trade security, energy cooperation, and geopolitical issues, including Middle East tensions. Discussions may influence commodity markets (e.g., oil) and defense stocks due to NATO’s proposed 5% GDP defense spending commitment by 2032.
Outcomes could affect energy stocks and global indices.
🔸6. U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE (FOMC) MEETING (JUNE 17–18)
The FOMC is expected to maintain the federal funds rate at 5.25%–5.5%. The release of updated Economic Projections and the Dot Plot on June 18, followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:00 PM ET, will be closely watched for signals on 2025 rate cuts. Markets currently expect a 20% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in July and 1.90 total cuts in 2025. Fed speakers (e.g., Raphael Bostic, Mary Daly, Austan Goolsbee) may also comment this week.
Hawkish signals could pressure growth stocks while dovish comments may support further gains in U.S. indices.
🔸7. BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) MONETARY POLICY MEETING (JUNE 16–17)
The BoJ will review its monetary policy, following a May 1 cut in growth and inflation forecasts. Japan’s GDP contracted less than expected in Q1 2025 (–0.2% annualized vs. –0.7% estimated). Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments on JGB purchase tapering could move markets, with the 10-year JGB yield at 1.46%.
Policy shifts could affect the Nikkei 225 and yen influencing Japanese and Asian markets.
🔸8. BANK OF ENGLAND (BOE) RATE DECISION (JUNE 19)
The BoE is expected to hold its key rate at 4.25%, despite cooling UK inflation expectations (3.2% for the next 12 months). Deutsche Bank anticipates a potential August cut signal, which could impact UK markets.
A dovish outlook could support the FTSE 100, particularly oil and defense majors, amid Middle East-driven commodity price spikes.
🔸9. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES
✳️MONDAY, JUNE 16:
China: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Jobless Rate. Weak consumer demand could pressure China’s CSI 300 and Hang Seng.
U.S.: Empire State Manufacturing Index, A gauge of regional manufacturing activity.
Malaysia: External Trade Data by State.
✳️TUESDAY, JUNE 17:
U.S.: Advance Retail Sales, reflecting consumer spending trends.
Singapore: Non-Domestic Exports, impacting Asian trade sentiment.
✳️WEDNESDAY, JUNE 18:
UK: CPI Inflation Data, a key input for BoE policy expectations.
✳️THURSDAY, JUNE 19:
U.S.: Initial Jobless Claims and PPI Inflation.
✳️FRIDAY, JUNE 20:
♦️Japan: CPI Inflation, influencing BoJ policy outlook.
♦️Sweden: Riksbank Policy Decision, potentially affecting European markets.
♦️Norway: Norges Bank Policy Decision, impacting Nordic markets.
🔸10. U.S. GENIUS ACT SENATE VOTE (June 17)
A U.S. bill to regulate stablecoins is set for a Senate vote, potentially impacting fintech and crypto-related stocks. Retail giants like Walmart and Amazon are exploring stablecoin offerings, boosting shares of Circle Internet Group (USDC issuer) by 20% recently.
Passage could lift crypto and payment stocks, while delays or rejection may dampen sentiment.
🔸11. GEOPOLITICAL AND COMMODITY MARKET
♦️Middle East Tensions Israel-Iran conflicts have driven oil price volatility Further escalation could push energy stocks higher but raise recession fears, impacting global indices.
♦️U.S. Tariff Legal Battle: A U.S. Court of International Trade response on Trump’s tariff authority (via IEEPA) is due by June 19, potentially affecting trade-sensitive sectors. A stay keeps tariffs in place during appeals.
🔸12.STOCK MARKET HOLIDAYS
♦️Australia: Markets closed on June 16 for a public holiday, potentially reducing Asia-Pacific liquidity.
♦️South Africa: Youth Day (June 16) may close the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, affecting emerging market indices.
