Spot gold trades within a narrow range as conflicting market forces cap sharp price swings, leaving the precious metal subdued in the short run. Nevertheless, the 20th edition of Incrementum AG’s annual gold report asserts gold’s secular bull trend remains firmly intact, with solid fundamental backdrops set to sustain upside momentum ahead.
Precious metals saw divergent performance following Thursday’s closing bell. Gold edged marginally lower while silver registered a notable advance. Sliding crude oil prices and retreating U.S. Treasury yields managed to counterbalance upward pressure from a strengthening U.S. dollar. Spot gold settled at $4,542.40 per ounce, down 0.04% intraday, whereas spot silver climbed 1.03% to stand at $76.655 per ounce.
U.S. economic indicators printed mixed readings, casting ambiguity over the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path. Initial jobless claims edged down, underscoring underlying resilience in the domestic labor market. April housing starts retreated on a monthly basis, yet building permits notched steady growth. Regional manufacturing sentiment slumped sharply, while national manufacturing and service sector PMI stayed firmly in expansion territory.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a pivotal geopolitical catalyst driving commodities and precious metals pricing. Improved prospects for U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks have eased embedded risk premiums, which in turn dented safe-haven inflows into gold recently.
Strong cross-asset correlation played out across global markets. Both WTI and Brent crude benchmarks suffered steep losses, dragging bond yields lower alongside. U.S. equities staged a broad rebound to finish firmly higher, with energy stocks lagging the broader market rally. Market consensus points to choppy sideways trading for gold through early summer, with prices projected to fluctuate between $4,500 and $4,950 per ounce amid persistent volatility.
Against the backdrop of short-term price swings, Incrementum AG’s milestone In Gold We Trust report offers a bullish long-term outlook for gold. The influential publication has evolved drastically over two decades, coinciding with a more than 600% surge in gold prices since its inaugural release. The metal secured its steepest annual gain in decades in 2025, and scaled an all-time peak of $5,595 per ounce in early 2026.
Analysts stressed gold’s prolonged rally is not driven by speculative frenzy, but a sweeping monetary revaluation trend fueled by geopolitical fragmentation, deepening de-dollarization, volatile inflation and eroding confidence in fiat currencies. Flaws within the long-standing fiat monetary system have become increasingly apparent, elevating gold’s stature as a reliable monetary anchor.
The research firm has lifted its long-term price projection substantially. Its prior 2030 target of $4,800 per ounce has already been achieved ahead of schedule, prompting an upward revision to a new decade-end forecast of $8,900 per ounce. The gold market is currently navigating the public participation phase, deemed the most vibrant and prolonged stage of a bull market, leaving ample room for further price appreciation.
Robust fundamentals continue to underpin gold’s enduring bull run. The decades-old global monetary order is undergoing structural decline, and central banks persist with robust gold reserve purchases. A stark discrepancy between the official valuation and prevailing market price of U.S. gold holdings has spurred growing discussions over potential reserve revaluation. Gold still accounts for a modest share of global financial assets, with institutional holdings remaining relatively low and no signs of overcrowded positioning.
Global sovereign debt keeps breaking historical records, with U.S. national debt also climbing steadily. Traditional government bonds have lost conventional risk-free asset appeal amid deeply negative inflation-adjusted returns, pushing investors to shift capital toward tangible value stores such as gold. While intermittent pullbacks are inevitable in short-term trading, the report views downside corrections as viable buying opportunities. Near-term consolidation will not derail gold’s dominant long-term upward trajectory.