Oil prices are on track for a weekly decline, with NYMEX WTI down more than 10% versus last week’s close. The move follows the start of normalisation in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, easing what had been the largest recent disruption to global crude flows. Tankers previously stranded are resuming transit, with around 10m barrels exiting or moving through the strait. This remains below typical flows of around 20m b/d, but the gap should narrow quickly as production recovers. Kuwait is already signalling a gradual restart.
At the same time, OPEC’s latest World Oil Outlook maintains a constructive long-term demand outlook, driven by growth in Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. And an expected balance among energy security, affordability, and climate goals. This contrasts with the International Energy Agency’s view, which points to an eventual decline in global oil demand.
Refined product data from Insights Global shows ARA stocks fell by 36kt week-on-week to 4.5mt (week ending 18 June). Gasoline led declines, down 97kt to 1.04mt and remaining below the five-year average. This was partly offset by builds elsewhere: gasoil (+23kt to 1.8mt), jet fuel (+12kt to 547kt), naphtha (+17kt to 469kt, highest since April), and fuel oil (+9kt to 582kt). Concerns around summer supply availability persist.
In Singapore, total product inventories rose by 850k barrels to 35.3m, driven by builds in middle distillates and residual fuels, while light distillates fell by 633k barrels.
In gas, Henry Hub futures rose 2.8% after the Energy Information Administration reported a smaller-than-expected storage build of 73bcf (vs. 78bcf expected). Inventories stand at 2.76tcf, slightly below last year but above the five-year average. Stronger LNG exports are tightening domestic balances, although higher production continues to cap upside.