Investing.com – Futures linked to the main U.S. stock indices point higher, bolstered by hopes for an imminent peace deal between the U.S. and Iran. Media reports suggest that Washington and Tehran have agreed in principle on a deal, although comments from both sides appear to temper the likelihood that a complete accord will be announced soon. Oil prices sink and the dollar softens, while gold rallies.
1. Futures surge
U.S. stock futures spiked on Monday, as investors cheered signs of a potential breakthrough in negotiations to end the war in Iran.
By 03:44 ET (07:44 GMT), the had jumped by 399 points, or 0.8%, climbed by 70 points, or 0.9%, and had surged by 407 points, or 1.4%.
Stocks in Asia and Europe have also rallied, although liquidity is likely to be thin with the main averages on Wall Street set to be closed today in observance of Memorial Day. U.S. stock markets will reopen on Tuesday.
Following protracted diplomatic efforts to forge a deal between the U.S. and Iran, some analysts have suggested that markets have already been priced for a peace, potentially dampening the impact of an agreement.
“The chances of a large, broad-based relief rally if […] the Strait of Hormuz is re-opened have probably diminished over time, although some markets have more upside than others,” analysts at Capital Economics said in a note.
Elsewhere, ticked up by a full point. There is no cash trading on Monday. Last week, the 30-year yield, a gauge often used to track geopolitical and economic risk sentiment, temporarily rose to its highest level since 2007. Yields tend to move inversely to prices.
2. Iran peace agreement hopes grow
Washington and Tehran have agreed in principle on an accord to conclude their more than two-month old war, news outlets reported over the weekend, citing a senior White House official.
Crucially, the agreement would include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway off Iran’s southern coast through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil flows. The strait has been all but shuttered to tanker traffic for weeks, driving up oil prices and fueling worries over a burst of inflation in countries around the world.
However, Iran moved to pour cold water on speculation around an impending deal. Both sides have reached a framework to end the conflict, but a potential memorandum of understanding does not include specifics about the management of the Strait of Hormuz, an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson said on Monday, according to Reuters.
Writing on social media, U.S. President Donald Trump also flagged that he had told his representatives “not to rush into a deal,” adding that an American blockade on Iranian ports would stay in effect until an agreements is “reached, certified, and signed.”
3. Oil sinks
Yet the weekend reports were enough to spark a steep drop in oil prices, potentially providing some relief for traders fretting over a wave of energy-induced inflation in countries around the world.
, the global oil benchmark, were last down by 4.7% at $95.54 a barrel. Despite sliding below recent peaks above $100 a barrel, Brent’s level remains well above where it was prior to the start of the war in late February.
“We’ve been at this stage before, only for talks to break down. Therefore, the market will likely be more cautious about overreacting to these headlines,” analysts at ING said in a note.
Strategists have also warned that, even if an accord is secured, oil prices are unlikely to slide back down to pre-war levels, reflecting an elevated geopolitical risk premium and the fighting’s impact on global energy supply chains.
With the prospect a prolonged energy price spike fueling fears of inflation, bets have grown that central banks in both developed and emerging countries will react by lifting interest rates. The U.S. Federal Reserve, for instance, is now anticipated to hike borrowing costs by 25-basis points in January 2027, versus expectations prior to the war for a round of rate cuts.
4. Gold jumps
Projections that rates will remain higher for longer kept a lid on an increase in .
By 04:25 ET (08:25 GMT), had risen by 1.0% to $4,555.21 an ounce, but is languishing well below pre-war levels.
Bullion, a non-yielding asset, is widely viewed as an underperformer when interest rates are elevated. At the same time, the U.S. dollar has been seen as a relative safe haven for investment, thanks in part to the belief in some corners that the U.S. — a major energy exporter — will be able to economically withstand an energy shock brought on by the war.
A firmer dollar can take some of shine off of gold’s appeal by making the yellow metal more expensive for overseas buyers. The , a tracker of the greenback against a basket of currency peers, was last trading down by 0.2% at 99.02.
5. rallies amid Uber bid reports
Delivery Hero shares reached the highest level in 18 months on Monday after the German food delivery company disclosed it received an indicative offer from Uber, with a Financial Times report suggesting the U.S. company may increase its bid.
The stock traded 9.7% higher at 36.85 euros per share at 08:15 GMT, marking its strongest level since late November 2024. The rally valued Delivery Hero at 11.2 billion euros ($13.04 billion).
The Financial Times reported that Uber is considering a higher offer for Delivery Hero after a major shareholder rejected a bid valuing the company at more than 11.5 billion euros ($13.4 billion).
According to the report, Uber approached one of Delivery Hero’s largest shareholders in recent days with an offer of 38 euros per share, which was turned down. Several Delivery Hero shareholders are seeking a price above 40 euros per share for the entire company, the report said.