Guinea, the world’s largest bauxite producer, plans to announce major reform measures next month to control bauxite export volumes, in an attempt to further push up aluminum prices. Recently, the international benchmark for aluminum prices—LME aluminum—has risen above $3,600 per ton, with the LME aluminum spot settlement price reaching as high as $3,768 per ton on May 14. Since the second half of 2025, LME three-month aluminum futures prices have increased by nearly 50%, and Wall Street investment bank Citigroup (C) has even stated that aluminum prices are experiencing the “strongest bullish pattern in more than 50 years.”
Guinea’s export control plan is not an isolated event. Shortly before, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zimbabwe imposed export restrictions on cobalt and lithium, respectively. African resource-rich countries have set off a wave of “resource sovereignty”—by controlling the export of key minerals to secure greater pricing power and local value addition.
Supply Surge Pressures Prices, Government Plans to Adjust Export Volumes
Statistical data shows that Guinea accounts for more than one-third of global bauxite production. Shipments surged by a quarter to 183 million tons in 2025, and growth accelerated further in the first three months of this year. This has caused bauxite prices to fall by nearly half from their peak at the beginning of last year.
Bauxite is the raw material used to produce alumina, which is further processed into aluminum. Most of Guinea’s bauxite is shipped to China. Similar to the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zimbabwe, Guinea is also trying to promote investment in local processing plants. The government is vigorously pushing miners to build alumina refineries, with three facilities currently in the planning or construction phase. Bouna Sylla, Minister of Mines and Geology of the West African country, stated that the government hopes to add a total of five new refineries, with a combined annual capacity of approximately 7.2 million tons. Even so, this output would still account for less than 15% of the bauxite mined in Guinea last year. He also stated that Guinea intends to seek large investors for an aluminum smelter, asserting that “moving from alumina to aluminum is inevitable.”
Reassessment of the Entire Supply Chain, Long-Term Bullish Outlook for Commodities
Citigroup believes that aluminum is in one of the strongest bullish patterns in more than 50 years, with prices expected to reach $4,000 in the next three months and potentially $5,350 by 2027 under a bull market scenario. Citi’s analysis points out that the core foundation is the systemic erosion of supply elasticity: geopolitical conflicts have damaged aluminum smelting capacity in the Middle East, China’s electrolytic aluminum capacity has hit a ceiling, overseas idle capacity is limited, and inventories are at multi-year lows. Guinea’s export controls serve as a new catalyst for a long-term bull market in aluminum.
Meanwhile, a research team led by strategist Michael Hartnett at Bank of America (BAC) published a report stating that investors will continue to pour into commodity markets in the coming years, with the rally potentially lasting until the end of 2030. Bank of America believes that geopolitics and the global AI race are inherently intensifying the competition for energy, rare earths, minerals, and key resources. The security of commodity supply systems and control over supply chains are becoming central to pricing.