Our weekly commodities overview provides a comprehensive review of the latest developments across these markets, offering deeper insight into price variations in energy, metals and agricultural soft commodities.
Energy: The situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remains volatile, although the market appears to be seeing the glass as half full. With the United States and Iran engaged in direct or indirect negotiations, oil prices have begun to fall back again: Brent is trading at around $100 per barrel, while WTI has eased to $97. However, this pullback remains fragile, given the persistent tensions in the Middle East. Fresh military skirmishes occurred last Friday near the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump downplayed these incidents, asserting that the ceasefire remains in effect. The outlook for price dynamics is largely binary: the signing of a peace agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would drive prices lower, whereas any delay in negotiations will keep upward pressure on prices.
Metals: Gold is gaining ground, fluctuating in tandem with oil – based on developments in the Middle East. A potential agreement would significantly alleviate concerns regarding energy-driven inflation. With inflation under control, the US Federal Reserve would find it easier to cut interest rates. It is worth noting that gold becomes more attractive as interest rates decline, as the metal provides no direct yield to investors. Nevertheless, gold’s upside remains capped by ongoing uncertainties, as Iran currently refuses to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Consequently, spot gold has risen to $4,730. Silver is following suit, climbing to $85. In London, copper recorded its strongest weekly performance since January. 3-month copper is trading at $13,573 per tonne. Global supply is being severely tested, fueling this rally. Firstly, Freeport-McMoRan has delayed the return to full capacity at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, one of the world’s largest. Secondly, blockages in the Strait of Hormuz are disrupting the supply of sulfuric acid, an essential component in copper production.
Agricultural Products: Wheat, corn, and soybeans are entering a consolidation phase in Chicago. Prices lost ground last week, with wheat trading at around 614 cents (July 2026 contract). The market is closely monitoring weather patterns in the United States, where drought is impacting the American wheat belt. The rally is accelerating in cocoa, which has surged about 20% in five days. Concerns are mounting over harvest prospects in West Africa due to a shortage of fertilizers.
