Sibanye Stillwater has warned that global supplies of platinum group metals (PGMs) are set to tighten over the next decade, with South Africa at the centre of the shift as production declines and investment remains constrained.
Presenting at its capital markets day on international and recycling operations, the company said the primary supply of “3E” metals, which includes platinum, palladium and rhodium, is expected to fall by about 1.7 million ounces (over 48 000 kilograms) over the next 10 years.
The decline is driven in part by South Africa’s dominant role in platinum supply and the mounting pressures facing its mining sector.
Data presented by the group shows primary platinum production gradually decreasing across all major regions, with a compound annual decline of about 1.8% to 2034, while South Africa shows a 1.9% drop.
South Africa remains the largest contributor, but its output is under strain from persistent operational challenges, including unreliable power, water shortages, regulatory hurdles, rising costs and crime.
The outlook for palladium is similarly weak as global primary supply is projected to contract with steeper declines expected in some regions.
Output from Russia faces uncertainty due to geopolitical pressures linked to the Ukraine war and ongoing sanctions, which are slowing expansion projects and limiting growth.
Sibanye Stillwater also highlighted declining contributions from Zimbabwe and North America, although at a more moderate pace.
South Africa holds some of the largest platinum reserves, but underinvestment is emerging as a major risk to future output.
Sibanye said limited capital allocation into new supply, combined with depressed metal prices, is discouraging expansion and replacement of ageing infrastructure. Cost inflation across the mining sector is compounding the problem.
Overall, the company expects palladium supply to shrink by hundreds of thousands of ounces annually over the period.
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