Jimmy’s Punt 27/26: Staked 5.5pts | Returned 7.1pts | P/L +1.6pts | ROI 29% (25/26 +14.4pts)
Football betting tips: EFL
Saturday 12:30 – Doncaster vs Barnsley
1pt Reyes Cleary to score anytime at 15/4 (bet365)
0.5pt Reyes Cleary to score 2+ goals at 40/1 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00
1pt Leyton Orient to beat Wigan at 11/5 (General)
3pts Over 2.5 goals & BTTS in Rotherham vs York at 5/4 (General)
Sunday 12:00 – West Brom vs Burnley
1pt Zian Flemming to score anytime at 7/4 (bet365)
0.5pt Zian Flemming to score a header at 7/1 (bet365)
Football’s back and in terms of the opening column it was marginal profit.
Hindsight typically confirmed we were on the right lines with Fer Lopez but put forward the wrong bet, the wrong lines with Bristol Rovers and were fortunate to ultimately get the draw up at Turf Moor on Sunday.
This weekend’s action kicks-off in League One on Thursday and ends at noon in the Championship on Sunday. And I am touting goals, goalscorers, cards and a result.
Doncaster vs Barnsley
No side had more shots on target (8), corners (12) or touches in the opposition box (58) in League One than Barnsley did in their defeat at home to Bromley.
And despite all that huffing and puffing, the Reds just couldn’t find a way through.
Daniel Stendel clearly needs a frontman but for the trip to Doncaster, it looks like he’ll have to make do without.
This could work to their advantage though. The Reds found it difficult to break down Bromley’s low block but could have more joy against Doncaster, who won’t be sat as deep.
REYES CLEARY started as their focal point on Saturday, on paper at least because he likes to drift out to his more familiar left wing slot in possession, interchanging with Luke Alker. And Cleary’s pace and direct dribbling could cause Rovers’ backline some issues.
Cleary had four shots against the Ravens, a tally only bested by teammate Cameron McGeehan last weekend in the third tier (5).
In total, the 22-year-old has had seven attempts this season, three shots on target and generated an xG of 0.42 in two appearances.
At 15/4 and 40/1, his prices TO SCORE ANYTIME and TO SCORE 2+ GOALS are both worth a punt.
Wigan vs Leyton Orient
Wigan were left to rue their wasteful finishing in the first round of the Carabao Cup, squandering five ‘big chances’ and having a goal disallowed at the death before ultimately losing to Barnsley on penalties.
The Latics played well though and on another day would have won comfortably but any confidence taken from that trip to Oakwell quickly faded at Cambridge last weekend.
The U’s were 3-0 up before the hour mark and although two quick-fire goals made the scoreline look more respectable, it looks like it is going to be a tough season for Gary Caldwell’s men.
Of the 2.20 worth of xG they created, only 0.45 came before the U’s netted their third goal so they were truly outplayed.
And at the prices available on Saturday, I’ll be getting against the hosts.
LEYTON ORIENT beat Oxford in the cup – take that with a pinch of salt – and were competitive against ante-post second favourites for the title Sheffield Wednesday in their first league game.
Richie Wellens is spiky at the best of times but has cut a chirpy figure this summer. He seems much happier with his club’s business and the general shape of the squad.
The O’s have had and lost the division’s last two top goalscorers heading into the new season. Dom Ballard departed for the Championship ahead of the 26/27 campaign but Orient quickly brought in Jaze Kabia to replace him, who is a capable replacement.
Wellens has also added experience in the form of Isaac Hayden and mercurial talent of Armando Dobra, with both featuring last weekend.
At 11/5, backing the visitors TO WIN appeals in the North West.
Not that I’d want to side with them yet either. No, the most sensible play looks like goals with OVER 2.5 AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE priced at 5/4.
The Millers were unlucky to come away with nothing at Cheltenham, winning the xG battle 2.03-0.60 and outshooting them 19-6.
This bet clicked in both their first two games of the season with two goals scored and six conceded.
York edged that five goal thriller with the Gas but have conceded multiple goals in both their matches, shipping an xGA total of 4.16.
West Brom vs Burnley
Since moving to England, ZIAN FLEMMING has netted double figures in three of four seasons.
He netted 11 in the Premier League last campaign (0.56 goals per 90), 12 in the Championship the season before and 22 across his two terms with Millwall.
In the second tier, excluding this season, that is a goals per 90 average of 0.33.
Technically, that average makes the 7/4 about Flemming TO SCORE ANYTIME a little short but that’s without considering what he did last Sunday.
Burnley were two down to West Ham with six minutes plus stoppages left to play. Flemming netted a brace, a penalty and the equaliser in the 92nd minute, to share the spoils.
He had nine shots in total, hit the target with four and was on the end of 1.69 xG.
It’s also worth noting Flemming had four headed shots, last season he averaged 0.91 headed shots per 90 in the top flight and the season before five of his 12 goals were headers.
At 7/1, backing him TO SCORE A HEADER could be worth a punt as well.
The Clarets will certainly fancy their chances against a West Brom side which has not kept a clean sheet yet this season, shipping a total xGA of 3.79 in two games.
It is worth noting, Flemming has been linked with a move away this summer and interest ramped up since last weekend’s brace.
Already advised
Thursday 20:00 – Sheff Wed vs Bradford
2pts Over 2.5 goals & BTTS at 5/4 (General)
1pt Callum Connolly to be carded at 3/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Connolly and Callum Slattery card double at 11/1 (bet365)
Sheffield Wednesday vs Bradford
The EFL action kicks-off in League One this weekend with a Yorkshire derby. Thursday night, under-the-lights, on the tele.
It’ll be the first bit of league action at Hillsborough under the new regime, so expect a boisterous atmosphere as Sheffield Wednesday host Bradford, stoked by a sell-out away following.
The Owls racked up the highest expected-goals (xG) in the division last weekend (2.80). Even if you knock off Jamal Lowe’s penalty (0.80), it would have still been the same tally as the Bantams, who had the sixth best figure.
Both these sides also shipped decent expected-goals-against (xGA) totals. Wednesday conceded 1.40 xGA against Leyton Orient, with the O’s carving out four ‘big chances’ (xG greater than 0.30). And Peterborough racked up an xG of 1.11 at Valley Parade.
So, at 5/4, backing OVER 2.5 GOALS AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE appeals.
Cards could also be worth a look.
These two sides picked up two each in their first game of the season, the Owls committed the most fouls in the division (19), Bradford committed the third most (16) and the pair ranked inside the top 10 for fouls drawn.
That’s only after one game of course but this is the first league meeting between the sides in over two decades and the referee is pretty obliging.
Thomas Parsons has dished out 12 cautions in two appearances this term, and averaged 4.16Y and 0.10R cards per game in the EFL last season.
At 3/1, CALLUM CONNOLLY’s price TO BE CARDED looks a touch big. He has a career cards per 90 average of 0.30 and should be marshalling CALLUM SLATTERY, who drew three fouls at Orient last Saturday.
Slattery gives as good as he gets though. He committed four fouls in his league debut and has picked up 49 cards across 142 league appearances in his career, including 14Y and 1R back in 22/23 for Motherwell, all bar one of which came in 23 starts.
Naturally, I’ll be touting the CARD DOUBLE.
At the time of writing, bet365 are the only ones to price the player card markets so it’ll be worth checking if there’s better prices available closer to kick-off. The prices advised are value though.
Odds correct at 13:30 BST (19/08/25)
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