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BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) has just given investors a packed update, including second quarter 2026 results, fresh earnings guidance for the rest of the year, and a new shelf registration filing.
See our latest analysis for BioMarin Pharmaceutical.
At a share price of US$67.36, BioMarin Pharmaceutical has seen a 90-day share price return of 35.62% and a 1-year total shareholder return of 17.07%, although the 3-year total shareholder return is down 24.36%. This points to improving short term momentum against a weaker longer term record.
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Bulls point to BioMarin Pharmaceutical’s rare disease portfolio and upgraded 2026 revenue outlook. Bears focus on thinner margins, higher leverage and the new shelf registration. Which side does the current valuation really support next?
Most Popular Narrative: 23.3% Undervalued
Compared with BioMarin Pharmaceutical’s last close at $67.36, the most widely followed narrative points to a higher fair value of $87.85 based on discounted future cash flows, using a 7.32% discount rate and detailed long term earnings assumptions.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $1.3 billion (and earnings per share of $6.72) by about June 2029, up from $268.7 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $2.1 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $759.4 million.
Want to see what earnings, margins and growth mix would need to line up for that valuation to hold? The full narrative spells out the cash flow path, the profitability step up and the multiple the stock would need to carry by 2029.
Result: Fair Value of $87.85 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, BioMarin Pharmaceutical still faces pressure if competition in rare disease treatments intensifies or if higher R&D and SG&A spending weighs on future profitability.
Find out about the key risks to this BioMarin Pharmaceutical narrative.
Next Steps
With BioMarin Pharmaceutical pulling strong opinions on both risks and rewards, it makes sense to pressure test the story for yourself. To see the key issues investors are focused on from both sides, start with the 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs