. reports first-quarter earnings Thursday before the market open, with investors seeking confirmation that the industrial real estate cycle is turning and that the logistics giant’s ambitious push into data centers is gaining traction.
Analysts expect the world’s largest warehouse owner to post earnings per share of $0.81 on revenue of $2.12 billion, representing a 28% jump in EPS from a year earlier even as revenue declines 4.1% year-over-year. The expected sequential revenue increase from the fourth quarter’s $2.10 billion suggests stabilizing fundamentals after a challenging 2025.
The report comes as Prologis Research signals a new industrial real estate cycle is kicking off in 2026, with vacancy expected to decline from 7.4% to approximately 7.1%-7.2% and net absorption projected to reach 200 million square feet, up from 155 million square feet in 2025. After global industrial rents fell 3.7% last year, the stabilization puts upward pressure on rents throughout the year.
EPS estimates have declined 3.72% over the past 60 days, though they’ve remained flat over the past week. Revenue estimates have held essentially steady. Analysts maintain a Buy rating on the stock, with a mean price target of $141.90 implying 2.6% upside from the current $138.36 share price. Of 23 analysts covering Prologis, 13 rate it a Buy and 10 rate it a Hold, with no Sell ratings.
What Investors Are Watching
The industrial cycle inflection will be in focus, particularly as Prologis expects to start between $4 billion and $5 billion in new development projects in 2026, with data centers making up around 40% of that total. Investors will scrutinize leasing volume, occupancy trends, and rent growth commentary for evidence that the company’s core business is recovering as forecast.
Progress on Prologis’ data center expansion represents a second key theme. The company has 1.4 gigawatts of secured power for data centers in its pipeline, with another 1.6 gigawatts in advanced stages of procurement. BofA Securities analyst Camille Bonnel, who raised her price target to $153 in March, sees incremental earnings accretion as Prologis redeploys data center proceeds into its core industrial platform.
Strategic capital momentum also matters, following Prologis’ March 19 announcement of a $1.6 billion U.S. build-to-suit logistics joint venture with GIC, which the company described as one of the clearest signals of customer conviction and will operate within its asset management business.
The first quarter follows a blowout fourth-quarter performance in which Prologis posted EPS of $1.49, crushing the $0.70 consensus by 113% and recording 228 million square feet of leases signed for full-year 2025.
Thursday’s results will help determine whether the industrial recovery is materializing on schedule and whether Prologis’ dual strategy—dominating logistics while building a data center empire—can drive earnings growth after last year’s soft performance.
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