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Fidelity now sees bitcoin evolving like during the early phases of a bull market. Such an interpretation contrasts with the caution displayed in recent months by several Wall Street players. This stance comes as BTC attempts to break through a significant technical resistance, supported by the return of institutional flows to Bitcoin ETFs.
In brief
- Fidelity estimates that bitcoin now evolves like during the early phases of major bull markets.
- Jurrien Timmer highlights BTC’s resistance despite an overbought condition and a major technical zone.
- Several signals catch investors’ attention, notably the return of flows to Bitcoin ETFs.
- Fidelity also observes a momentum rotation between gold and bitcoin, now driven by institutional players.
Fidelity Estimates That Bitcoin Is Entering a New Bull Phase
Jurrien Timmer considers that bitcoin is currently evolving in a rarely observed configuration in a bear market.
In a publication, the macroeconomics director at Fidelity explains that “bitcoin continues to test the neckline of a large head-and-shoulders pattern, while absorbing its overbought condition without a real price correction”.
In plain terms, bitcoin remains close to an important resistance zone while absorbing its overbought condition without a sharp correction.
Several technical elements emerge from Timmer’s published analysis :
- A pattern often considered a still active technical reversal signal ;
- A peak identified at 126,251 dollars ;
- A local low point located at 60,033 dollars ;
- An ascending channel in place since this rebound ;
- A critical zone monitored around 80,500 dollars.
The most striking element remains, however, the change in tone adopted by Fidelity. A few months earlier, Timmer still mentioned a potentially “boring” 2026 for bitcoin. Now, his discourse clearly moves closer to a bullish scenario.
“This is typically the behavior observed in the early phases of a bull market,” he states. The analysis also aligns with other indicators observed on the market, notably the strong tightening of monthly Bollinger Bands, often associated with violent price movements after a long compression phase.
At this stage, Fidelity does not yet speak of euphoria, but the company acknowledges that bitcoin’s current behavior no longer corresponds to the classic exhaustion patterns observed after an overbought phase.
ETF, Gold, and Institutions: The New Face of the Bitcoin Market
Beyond the chart analysis, Fidelity highlights a deeper market transformation. According to Timmer, the momentum leadership seems to be gradually shifting from gold to bitcoin. “Gold is pausing after a strong rise, while bitcoin is now taking over”, he explains. This capital rotation between two assets often considered alternative stores of value particularly attracts the attention of macroeconomic investors. It coincides with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording new inflows and several institutional players increasing their crypto market exposure.
This evolution fuels another reflection brought by Fidelity Digital Assets: that of a bitcoin that has become more mature, more liquid, and more integrated into traditional financial markets. In a recent analysis, the company even mentions a possible questioning of the famous four-year cycle historically linked to the halving. With a market capitalization having reached about 2.5 trillion dollars in October 2025, bitcoin would no longer react solely to its internal dynamics but also to major global macroeconomic flows and institutional arbitrages.
If bitcoin now manages to sustain itself above the 80,000 to 83,000 dollar zone mentioned by several analysts, the market could enter a sequence quite different from previous speculative cycles. Growing institutional interest, combined with wider financial adoption via ETFs, could modify the speed, scale, and even the structure of future BTC bull moves.
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Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d’une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j’ai rejoint l’aventure Cointribune en 2019.
Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l’économie, j’ai pris l’engagement de sensibiliser et d’informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu’elle offre. Je m’efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l’actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.