Is Velo3D (VELO) Turning Defense Contracts And Equity Raises Into A Credible Turnaround Story?

• In recent days, Velo3D, Inc. reported first-quarter 2026 results showing revenue of US$13.82 million and a net loss of US$7.00 million, reaffirmed its 2026 revenue guidance of US$60 million to US$70 million, and subsequently filed a US$100 million at-the-market follow-on equity offering alongside a US$63.03 million shelf registration for 3,000,000 common shares.
• These updates, including a previously announced US$9.80 million five-year contract with the Defense Logistics Agency and improved gross margin, highlight both growing defense-related demand and the company’s continued reliance on equity financing to support its turnaround efforts.
• We’ll now examine how the reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance and fresh equity offerings may reshape Velo3D’s existing investment narrative.

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Velo3D Investment Narrative Recap

To own Velo3D, you need to believe its metal 3D printing and Rapid Production Services can evolve into a durable, defense and aerospace focused platform, while the company narrows its losses. The reaffirmed 2026 revenue outlook and improving margins keep the near term catalyst centered on execution toward that guidance. At the same time, the new US$100 million at the market program underlines that ongoing equity issuance remains the biggest immediate risk for shareholders.

Among the recent updates, the US$100 million at the market follow on equity offering is most relevant here. It sits on top of the earlier US$50 million raise and the new US$63.03 million shelf, directly tying the funding side of the story to the turnaround thesis. For investors watching catalysts, these financings support Velo3D’s efforts to reach its revenue targets but also heighten the importance of how efficiently that new capital is converted into progress toward profitability.

Yet alongside the improved gross margin and defense contracts, investors should be aware that continued dilution risk could still…

Read the full narrative on Velo3D (it’s free!)

Velo3D’s narrative projects $15.5 million revenue and $1.4 million earnings by 2028. This implies revenue shrinking by 32.0% per year and an earnings increase of about $74 million from around -$72.7 million today.

Uncover how Velo3D’s forecasts yield a $6.00 fair value, a 68% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the most optimistic analysts were assuming revenue could reach about US$149.1 million by 2029, which contrasts sharply with the recent capital raises and highlights how differently you might weigh the risk that Velo3D’s shift to a recurring RPS platform takes longer or proves less profitable than hoped.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Velo3D – why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
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Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
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