It can be tempting during periods of political and economic change to spend too much time trying to predict what might happen next, but recent buy-to-let lending figures suggest there is already a significant area of activity sitting directly in front of advisers.
UK Finance’s Q1 2026 figures – issued in July this year – showed buy-to-let remortgage volumes rising by 11.1% year-on-year to 39,160, while the value of that lending increased by 15.3% to £7.5bn, at the same time as product transfers also grew, with 72,000 completed during the quarter, up 25.8%, and their value increasing by 34.3% to £12.3bn.
While we are talking about the first three months of the year, those numbers do tell us something important about where the market is heading because, while purchase activity will always matter enormously to buy-to-let, refinancing is already responsible for a significant proportion of current business and there are good reasons to think that opportunity will become increasingly important particularly over the next 12 to 18 months.
Start with the deals already on the books
There were almost 1.47 million fixed rate buy-to-let mortgages outstanding at the end of Q1, according to UK Finance, and while those loans will naturally have different maturity dates, they represent a very substantial population of landlord borrowers who will eventually need to make another financing decision.
For advisers, this should mean looking through existing client banks now, identifying which landlord deals are coming towards maturity and beginning those conversations early enough to consider the full range of available options, rather than allowing the mortgage expiry date to dictate the timetable.
There is also a particular feature of the coming refinancing cycle which should not be ignored, because significant volumes of buy-to-let lending were written four and five years ago by lenders whose propositions have either subsequently changed, or indeed are not lending any more, meaning some borrowers may find the retention options available to them today are either lower in number or potentially non-existent
That of course matters because the easiest refinancing route is not necessarily the most suitable one, and the growth in PTs should not result in advisers or landlords assuming that staying with their existing lender is automatically the right decision.
Compare the PT with the wider market
The UK Finance figures demonstrate just how important PTs have become, with their £12.3bn Q1 value comfortably exceeding the £7.5bn of external remortgage lending recorded over the same period, but I think those numbers reinforce the need for comparison rather than diminish it.
A PT may well provide the right answer, particularly where pricing is competitive and the landlord values a straightforward process, but advisers increasingly have a broad range of external remortgage products against which that option can be assessed, incorporating different rates, fees, fixed and tracker structures and incentives.
Technology has also changed the comparison because, as we know at Landbay, AVMs can remove the requirement for a physical valuation on suitable cases and potentially reduce the time involved in reaching mortgage offer, while free valuations and assisted legal options can reduce some of the additional costs traditionally associated with moving lender.
This is therefore not an argument for remortgaging instead of completing a PT, but for ensuring both routes are properly considered and the total cost, structure and suitability of each option are understood before a recommendation is made.
Don’t expect Bank Rate to make the decision easier
There will inevitably be landlords wondering whether they should wait for greater certainty on interest rates, particularly as we approach the September MPC meeting, but there is an important distinction between Bank Rate, swap rates and the mortgage pricing borrowers actually see.
My sense is that BBR may not rise by as much as some have anticipated, not necessarily because inflationary pressure has disappeared, but because weaker economic conditions and employment data could make the MPC increasingly cautious about tightening policy further.
There may yet be another increase, although it is also perfectly possible that we reach the end of the year with BBR back where it began, while much of the risk of a potential rise is already being reflected in market pricing.
Swaps have recently been moving up and down within a relatively narrow band of around 10 to 15 basis points, rather than establishing a materially different level, which helps explain why we have generally seen relatively modest mortgage repricing rather than significant shifts in either direction.
September should tell us more
Politically, there has been plenty of discussion about whether the change of Prime Minister might produce a ‘Burnham bounce’, but I would be very cautious about trying to identify one from summer activity because July and August are always difficult months from which to draw firm conclusions when landlords, advisers and other participants are taking holidays.
We have seen stronger and quieter weeks over the summer, but September should provide a much better indication of underlying activity as people return and attention starts turning towards the final quarter, although the end of October Budget will inevitably add another element of uncertainty.
For advisers, however, neither the next MPC decision nor the Budget changes the basic requirement, because refinancing demand is already out there, more fixed rate mortgages will mature, and landlords have an increasingly broad range of PT and remortgage options available to them.
The opportunity therefore lies less in predicting exactly where rates or politics might take us next and more in knowing which clients need to act, starting those conversations early and making sure the full market is considered before the next financing decision is made.