Asia Market Update: Risk assets outperform Asian equities, moving higher in Asian trading amid US-Iran impasse; Tesla Q1 tonight after US close.
General trend and developments
– US equity FUTs, gold, silver, bitcoin all moved higher as crude oil fell slightly with markets continuing to shrug off the US-Iran impasse.
– Asia stocks were flat (Nikkei, Kospi, Shanghai) to -1% (ASX, Hang Seng). Note earlier in the session Nikkei hit a fresh record high >59,700.
– Middle East situation remains in flux in the absence of talks even as Pres Trump extended the Iran ceasefire – saying he was waiting for the “fractured” government in Tehran to present a new “unified” plan – all while the Iranian military warned of a “powerful attack on predetermined targets in view of repeated threats by Trump”, in addition to objecting to the continuing US blockade.
– Trump and Iran both kept their respective hard-line positions during the Asia session, Trump insisting the Strait will stay closed, posting that Iran is ‘collapsing financially’.
– Sharp increase in South Korea’s March PPI, jumping two big handles to >4% amid Middle East supply crunch and widespread price hikes.
– New Zealand RBNZ chances of a rate hike in May jumped to 50% after yesterday’s second quarter in a row of above target CPI.
– Aussie miner BHP joined compatriot Rio Tinto in outperforming the prior year’s output and affirming this year’s guidance.
– Aussie medical-related Cochlear stock -40% as it cut guidance, among other factors citing heightened uncertainty to Q4 sales from Middle East conflict.
– Ampol [ALD.AU] said Fuel supplies now secured to at least the end of May 2026 and crude into July 2026.
– China’s clamp down on any news or details of the extent of its foot-and-mouth outbreak continues, but news that it has added to its approved list of companies allowed to ship beef into China indicates the outbreak is ongoing, if not spreading.
– Japan trade surplus for March was lower than expected, with exports still strong but imports even higher than expected, with the last 11 days of the month accelerating over the first 20 days or March, with LNG imports +13.9% y/y amid the impact of the Iran war.
– Follow up: Japan corporates impacted by the war ‘cautiously’ test waters after previously delaying debt sales.
– ASMPT (hardware/software provider in HK) reported strong growth in Q1 bookings [+46% q/q and +72% y/y]; However, Q2 SMT bookings will be down QoQ due to high base effects.
– International concern spreads about the hacking potential of Anthropic’s new Mythos AI model, as Japan Fin Min Katayama to meet Japan’s megabanks and other banks this week, while Australia RBA and New Zealand RBNZ also said to be monitoring Mythos. [Follows on from US Treas Sec Bessent recent meeting with US banks in NYC.].
– OIS chances of a BOJ rate hike at next Tuesday’s rate decision (Apr 28th) now at only 8.5% as at early Tuesday.
-Taiwan export orders in March continued their breakneck pace, +65.9% y/y, with orders from the US +76% y/y, with export orders to China, EU and Japan also very strong.
– Taiwan Pres Lai cancels his trip to Eswatini (formerly Swaziland) on pressure from the Chinese govt on the African nation, Taiwan’s only remaining diplomatic ally in Africa.
– Data center firms continue to market ABS [AirTrunk]. Meanwhile, data centers in China have been using ‘REIT-style’ financing, according to a recent US financial press article from Apr 14th.
-Tesla kicks off the Mag7 earnings season later tonight with their Q1 figures and new product projections such as Robotaxi, Optimus, AI capacity progress, etc. (Wed in the US, after the close).
– US equity FUTs +0.6% to +0.7% during Asia trading.
Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using Asian time zone)
– Wed Apr 22nd, UK Mar CPI/PPI, ID Rate Decision (Wed night Tesla Q1 after the US close).
– Thu Apr 23rd, US-Iran Ceasefire Deadline (Asian timezone), AU Apr prelim Mnfg, JP Apr prelim Mnfg, KR Q1 Prelim GDP, Global S&P/HCOB PMIs Day, SG Mar CPI, PH Rate Decision, TW Mar Industrial Production; HK Mar CPI.
– Fri Apr 24th, JP Mar CPI, UK Mar Retail Sales, (Fri night CA Feb Retail Sales).
Holidays in Asia this week
– No holidays in Asia this week.
Headlines/economic data
Australia/New Zealand
– (AU) ASX 200 opens -0.6% at 8,902.
– (AU) Australia Mar Westpac Leading Index M/M: -0.09% v -0.06% prior.
– (AU) Australia Health Min Butler: NDIS disability reform bill aiming to fight fraud, clarify eligibility.
China/Hong Kong
– (CN) Shanghai Composite opens -0.3% at 4,074; (HK) Hang Seng opens -0.7% at 26,304.
– (CN) Follow Up: China’s vast nuclear power is now able to build 50 reactors ‘at a time’ – SCMP [update].
– (CN) China’s Taiwan Affairs Office: Expresses appreciation for the position and practice of relevant countries in adhering to the one-China principle (in reference to Taiwan).
– (CN) TTN Research Alert: Update on China’s growing underground crude oil storage facilities as part of ‘national energy shield’.
– (CN) China shipyards said to win ‘wave’ of new orders for oil tankers amid Middle East conflict – SCMP.
– (CN) China NAFMII (interbank bond regulator) said to urge more issuance of floating-rate bonds – financial press.
– (CN) China property said to have stabilization as inventory drops – Economic Information Daily.
– (CN) China PBOC sets the yuan mid-point at 6.8635 v 6.8594 prior.
– (CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): injects CNY6B in 7-day Reverse Repos; Net injects CNY6B v injects CNY4B prior.
Japan
– (JP) Nikkei 225 opens -0.4% at 59,104.
– (JP) Japan Mar Trade Balance: ¥667.0B v ¥1.058Te.
– (JP) Follow up: China Party mouthpiece ‘denounces’ Japan PM’s offering to Yasukini (as expected).
– (JP) ANTHROPIC.IPO Japan Fin Min Katayama to meet banks to discuss Anthropic’s Mythos threat as soon as this week.
– (JP) Nikkei stock average rises to record-highs to >59,688.
Korea
– (KR) Kospi opens flat at 6,388.
– (KR) South Korea Mar PPI Y/Y: 4.1% v 2.5% prior.
– (KR) South Korea press notes Hyundai and Kia to report ‘lackluster’ earnings this week, due to US tariffs, Korean Won.
– (KR) Follow up: South Korea PM: Will decide whether to keep fuel price caps after review.
Other Asia
– (ID) Indonesia said to commit to sending ~1M tons of urea fertilzer to Brazil, India, Thailand, Philippines – financial press.
– (ID) Indonesia Q1 Foreign Direct Investment IDR250.0T; Investments IDR498.8T, +7.2% y/y.
– (ID) Technoz: Indonesia plans incentive for e-motorbike purchases.
– (IN) According to Moody’s a prolonged energy disruption is expected to widen India trade deficit – financial press [update].
– (IN) Launches 6-seater model Y L Premium in India, priced at INR6.2M.
– (IN) Banks in India have not entered into NDF contracts despite the central bank easing curbs – financial press [update].
North America
– (US) Pres. Trump: Extending Iran ceasefire until Iran’s “fractured” govt can present a “unified” plan and talks can be concluded; US military stands ready and will continue the blockade.
– (US) Follow up: US Treasury blocks $500M US-banknote delivery bound for Iraq to ‘squeeze’ Iran-backed militias – WSJ.
– (US) Mar Advance Retail Sales M/M: 1.7% v 1.4%e; Retail Sales (Ex-auto) M/M: 1.9% v 1.4%e; Retail Sales (control group): 0.7% v 0.2%e.
– (US) US Fed Chair Nominee Warsh: We need fundamental policy reforms, a different use of Fed tools, a new inflation framework, and a regime change; The Fed holds on to its forecasts longer than needed.
– (US) ANTHROPIC.IPO Mythos was accessed by unauthorized user group; Anthropic notes that there’s no evidence that the access impacted its systems; Investigation is ongoing – press.
– (US) CURSORAI.IPO *Proposes SpaceX to acquire Cursor later this year at $60B or invest $10B to form an AI model partnership – SpaceX post.
– (US) President Trump: Expect to end up with great deal with Iran; We are in a strong negotiating position: They have no choice but to send people to talks; Caught an Iran ship with “gifts” from China; I thought I had an understanding with Xi – CNBC interview.
– (US) Pres. Trump: Iran has Violated the Cease Fire numerous times! [**Reminder: current ceasefire expires on Wednesday, Apr 22nd].
– (US) Pres. Trump: Iran doesn’t want the Strait of Hormuz closed, they want it open so they can make $500M a day – post on Truth Social.
– (US) Federal judge blocks Trump Admin actions that have blocked permitting for wind and solar energy projects – press.
– (US) Follow up: US USTR Greer said to urge allies to pay more for critical minerals (inline) – FT.
– (US) Pres Trump reportedly to extend Jones Act waiver in order to ease US oil shipments – Axios.
– (US) US Energy Sec Wright: Gasoline prices peaked over a week or so ago.
– (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories: -4.5M v +6.1M prior.
– (US) Apr Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: -16.5 v -19.8e; New orders at lowest level since Apr 2023.
– (US) Mar Pending Home Sales M/M: 1.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: +1.8% v -3.0%e.
– (US) TTN Research Alert: U.S. logistical airlift from Europe to Middle East reaches one of the highest densities seen in weeks; U.S. Air Force C-17 airbridge hits peak intensity with 16 heavy transports and supporting tankers routing through Europe to CENTCOM bases.
– (US) Medicare said to delay GLP-1 coverage pilot program – US Press.
– (US) Pres. Trump: THE WALL STREET JOURNAL HAS LOST ITS WAY! An IDIOT on The Wall Street Journal’s Editorial Board, – post on Truth Social.
– (US) Pres. Trump: My Administration just delivered a BIG WIN for the Great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, which I love.
– (US) Pres. Trump: Wacko James Carville, a so-called Democrat “strategist,” wants the Democrats to make D.C. and Puerto Rioc States – post on Truth Social.
– (US) Virginia voters projected to approve new Democratic-backed congressional map; May flip up to 4 Republican US House seats in mid-term elections in Nov, 2026 – Decision Desk HQ.
– (CA) Canada’s US Chief Negotiator Charette: Canada is committed to the renewal of the USMCA agreement.
– (VE) Venezuela interim Pres Rodriguez: Spoke [on] Tuesday with IMF’s Georgieva – State TV.
Europe
– (EU) Reportedly Anthropic plans to expand access of Mythos model to European banks – press.
– (EU) ECB’s Kazaks (Latvia): ECB has the “luxury” to wait on rate rises – FT.
– (NL) Netherlands Apr Consumer Confidence: -44 v -30 prior.
– (NL) Netherlands Mar House Price Index M/M: 0.3% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 5.0% v 5.4% prior.
– (UK) UK Chancellor Reeves: Confirms extending electricity generator levy and lifting rate.
– (RU) Russia’s Tuapse oil refinery [capacity 240K bpd] has halted following Apr 16th’s drone attack – press.
– (IT) Reportedly Italy sees 2026 growth at 0.5%, 2027 growth at 0.6% – press.
– (ZA) South Africa SARB Monetary Policy Review: Oil shock has raised the peril of stagflation; must be vigilant on responce to shocks.
Middle East
– (IR) Iran confirms via Pakistan diplomat that it won’t attend talks with the US tomorrow – press.
– (IR) Reportedly JD Vance trip to Islamabad “on hold”, has not been canceled; Awaiting Iran response to US position – NYT.
– (IR) Iran Top Military Commander: Warns of powerful attack on predetermined targets in view of repeated threats by Trump.
– (IR) Iranian participation in US talks are yet undecided – FARS news agency.
– (IR) Iranian press outlets note that the continuation of a naval blockade amounts to continued hostility; As long as the blockade persists, Iran will at least not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and, if necessary, will break the US blockade by force – press.
– (IR) Pakistan PM Sharif: Hopes that both sides will continue to observe the ceasefire.
– (IQ) US reportedly demands Iraq dismantle Iran back militias; Suspends funding for Iraq security services – NYT.
Levels as of 01:20 ET
Nikkei 225 +0.3%; ASX 200 -1.0%; Hang Seng -1.3%; Shanghai Composite +0.3%; Kospi +0.3%.
Equity S&P500 Futures +0.6%; Nasdaq100 +0.7%; DAX +0.1%; FTSE100 -0.3%.
EUR 1.1763-1.1734; JPY 159.46-159.11; AUD 0.7177-0.7147; NZD 0.5921-0.5886.
Gold +1.0% at $4,769/oz; BTC +3.2% at $78,211, Crude Oil -2.0% at $87.76/bbl; Copper +0.7% at $6.0593/lbs.