The 15-year FRM moved in the opposite direction, slipping to 6.01% from 6.04% the prior week, a marginal pullback that offers little relief to borrowers weighing a refinance, given the 15-year averaged just 5.75% a year ago.
Geopolitics and a silent Fed keep yields elevated
The bond market is caught between two competing uncertainties: unresolved negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and a Federal Reserve that has continued to withhold meaningful guidance.
The 10-year Treasury yield — which lenders use as the primary benchmark for pricing home loans — hit an 18-month high above 4.7% before retreating modestly on reports that the US and Iran may be nearing a shipping agreement.
Tehran denied any direct talks, however, saying its negotiations are solely with Oman.
Mortgage rates have been slow to follow the bond market’s partial pullback. Friday’s unemployment report, next week’s inflation data, and the Hormuz situation’s trajectory will determine whether that gap closes in the coming weeks.