“Sydney and Melbourne prices have declined slightly more than our forecasts, and prices in Brisbane and Perth have started falling earlier than we expected,” said Madeline Dunk, economist at ANZ. “This should see capital city housing prices rise by 4.3% in 2028.”
Megan Lieu (pictured right), senior economic analyst at REA Group, pointed to two patterns among the resilient regions. “The first is, there’s not a lot of capital city regions,” she said. “And a lot of that has to do with the fact that regional areas are more affordable.
“Secondly, they tend to have a diverse range of buyer types. So in some of these regions, for example, Richmond and Tweed, it’s young families as well as retirees. They usually have strong local economies, or they’re somewhat close to regional hubs where there are jobs.”
Lieu noted Adelaide was the only capital city to record positive growth across all three correction periods. “I think that has a lot to do with the fact that up until a few years ago, it was one of the most affordable capital cities,” she said.
Where home prices rose throughout all three correction periods
| Region | State | Growth: Jan 2004 to Dec 2005 | Growth: Apr 2018 to Apr 2019 | Growth: Apr 2026 to Jul 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central West | NSW | 14% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Murray | NSW | 19% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Richmond – Tweed | NSW | 9% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Adelaide – South | SA | 10% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| South Australia – South East | SA | 18% | 1.5% | 2.2% |
| Launceston and North East | Tas | 24% | 7.1% | 1.7% |
| South East | Tas | 35% | 7.0% | 1.2% |
| West and North West | Tas | 25% | 7.8% | 0.6% |
| Latrobe – Gippsland | Vic | 14% | 4.0% | 0.5% |
| Warrnambool and South West | Vic | 13% | 3.7% | 0.4% |
Source: realestate.com.au | Includes SA4 regions that exceeded the national market during correction periods.
Adelaide’s south a standout
Peter Koulizos (pictured right), property academic at the University of Adelaide, said suburbs along Adelaide’s southern coastal strip — from Glenelg to Aldinga Beach and the McLaren Vale wine region — had consistently outperformed for more than two decades.