Bitcoin Price: BTC Just Reclaimed the Bull Market Support Band for the First Time in 6 Months

Quick Read

• Bitcoin reclaimed the Bull Market Support Band, built from its 20-week simple moving average and 21-week exponential moving average, for the first time since November 2025. The band hovers around $79,000, and BTC is now trading above $80,000 after holding above it for the second straight day.

• Each of the last three times Bitcoin reclaimed this band after a prolonged stay below it was followed by strong rallies, often 50% or more within a few months.

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Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has reclaimed the Bull Market Support Band, often used to gauge bull versus bear phases. When Bitcoin reclaims this band, it tends to go on a bullish run. However, when it loses the band, the bearish pressure usually persists until the band is reclaimed.

The Bitcoin price fell below the band in November 2025, right after topping out near its $126,000 all-time high the month before. For six months, the band held around $79,000 and has rejected every rally attempt since BTC broke below it in late January. Bitcoin has now reclaimed the band and is trading above $80,000. If history is anything to go by, this is a huge development.

What Happened Other Times Bitcoin Reclaimed the Band?

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Before getting into the examples, here is what the band actually is. The Bull Market Support Band is built from two moving averages: the 20-week simple moving average, which captures Bitcoin’s price trend over roughly the last five months, and the 21-week exponential moving average, which weights recent prices more heavily to reflect current momentum.

Together they form a zone that historically separates bull and bear phases. Bitcoin trading above it means bullish, and below it means bearish—and the band currently hovers around $79,000.

The Bitcoin price has reclaimed the band after prolonged bear phases three times before—in 2019, 2023, and 2025. Each time, the traders who dismissed it as a temporary bounce watched the next rally happen without them.

2019

The 2018 bear market was severe. Bitcoin fell from around $20,000 to just under $3,200, a drop of roughly 84%, and most people assumed it wasn’t going to bounce back. When Bitcoin quietly reclaimed the Bull Market Support Band around $5,000 in early April 2019, few paid attention.

Within 30 days of that reclaim, Bitcoin had climbed to around $5,500. After 60 days, it pushed past $8,500. By 90 days, Bitcoin was trading near $13,000, peaking at $13,880 by late June—up roughly 175% from where it stood when it first crossed back above the band. The majority of retail investors missed most of that run because they were still waiting for proof it was real.

2023

Bitcoin fell to around $15,500 in November 2022 after FTX collapsed, and the sentiment was as dark as it gets. There were bankruptcies, fraud charges, and widespread predictions that the whole market was finished.

Then Bitcoin reclaimed the band around $20,000 by January 2023. Thirty days later, it had moved to roughly $23,000. At 60 days, the Silicon Valley Bank collapse had pushed it to around $26,000 as investors looked for alternatives to the banking system. By the 90-day mark, it had cleared $30,000, which was a 50% gain from the reclaim point. Like the pattern in 2019, the move started well before most people felt comfortable getting back in.

2025

The 2025 reclaim came after a mid-cycle correction that had erased a large portion of unrealized gains for holders who had been in since 2023. Bitcoin pushed back above the band around $93,000 in early 2025 and didn’t look back. It went on to set new highs, eventually topping out at $126,000 on October 6, 2025. But that was the exact peak that kicked off the six-month bear phase it’s now trying to climb out of.

What Bitcoin Needs to Hold This Level

Reclaiming a level and holding it are two completely different things. Bitcoin reached the underside of the band several times in recent months and slipped back below it each time, which is exactly what makes a sustained hold above it meaningful.

Trading volume is the key to holding above the current band level. Bitcoin needs to reclaim the band on real buying pressure from a large number of holders—this is what makes the reclaim historically stick. The failed attempts in 2022 and early 2023 were largely low-volume bounces that ran out of steam, as stronger reclaims tend to come with rising volume.

Another important factor that can help Bitcoin hold this level is momentum. The 14-week RSI—a measure of buying versus selling pressure—needs to stay above 50 to confirm the trend has genuinely shifted. A reading that drops back below 50 while Bitcoin trades above the band is a warning sign worth taking seriously. Readings below that line have led to false recoveries in the past.

Lastly, Bitcoin needs a stable macro backdrop to turn a reclaim into a sustained trend. Bitcoin’s recent failed attempts to reclaim this band coincided with stretches of broader market stress. A stronger dollar, equity weakness, and rate uncertainty all pushed Bitcoin back below the line before it could build a base. If those conditions return in May or June 2026, even a clean technical reclaim can fall apart.

Does This Signal Mean the Bitcoin Bear Market Is Over?

No single indicator in any market is a guarantee, and treating it like one has burned traders before. However, this is the highest-quality confirmation signal Bitcoin has produced since the October 2025 top.

The Bull Market Support Band reclaim reflects a genuine shift in long-term price structure, one that has preceded several major bullish phases since 2019. History tells us that dismissing it has consistently been the wrong call. So, if Bitcoin holds this band through mid-May 2026 on healthy volume, the case for a sustained recovery and the end of the bear phase becomes very hard to argue against.

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