Investing.com — Ypsomed Holding AG () shares fell 1.2% Thursday after trading down as much as 3% earlier in the session, following analyst concerns about the company’s medium-term growth prospects and valuation.
Jefferies initiated coverage with an Underperform rating and a price target of CHF280, citing concerns about the injectable device maker’s ability to meet medium-term guidance. The firm’s forecast for fiscal 2030 EBIT sits 7% below consensus estimates, with its DCF valuation suggesting 18% downside from current levels.
The analyst highlighted Ypsomed’s exposure to ’s Cagrisema as a key risk factor. Despite a 54% reduction in fiscal 2030 Cagrisema consensus estimates since the September 2025 capital markets day, Ypsomed’s stock has recovered to pre-readout levels with limited changes to medium-term consensus, suggesting the reduced commercial potential has not been fully reflected in forecasts.
Jefferies estimates Cagrisema could contribute approximately CHF78 million, or 8.2%, to Ypsomed’s fiscal 2030 sales, but may represent 10-25% of incremental YoY growth over the medium term. The risk increased after Novo Nordisk’s first quarter 2026 update confirmed termination of the Cagrisema co-formulation, potentially limiting scalability and commercial viability.
The analyst also noted that Ypsomed’s reduction in medium-term capital expenditure to CHF1.3 billion signals lower demand, particularly from Cagrisema. Jefferies estimates the canceled capex implies an approximately CHF80 million reduction in peak sales potential.
“We see Cagrisema exposure weighing on MT sales growth, driving downside risk to consensus forecasts given the materiality to incremental growth,” Jefferies commented.
The firm also expressed concerns about margin expansion, noting medium-term guidance points to a margin decrease as the company pivots to lower-priced commercial products.
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