During a June 16, 2026, Capitol Hill press conference, U.S. Farmers and Ranchers in Action (USFRA) released a study entitled Fueling Agriculture: Biofuels as the Catalyst. Prepared by S&P Global Energy, the study notes that biofuel demand is decreasing due to vehicle efficiency gains, changing driving patterns, and increased reliance on electric vehicles. According to the study, at current blend rates of around ten percent, U.S. ethanol demand for on-road transportation fuels could fall nearly 50 percent by 2050. The study recommends that stakeholders explore new pathways to reignite growth in farm communities, drive innovation, and expand agriculture’s capacity to feed and fuel the world using fewer resources. In a scenario where biofuel demand expands, U.S. agricultural production would remain strong and continue to serve as a “secure, ample, and reliable long-term supplier of corn, ethanol, and other agricultural products to domestic and international markets.” The study “combines proprietary datasets, quantitative modeling, and scenario analysis with real world insights from leading participants across the agribusiness and biofuels value chain.” Interviews were conducted with farmers; input and technology providers; grain and oilseed processors; biofuel producers; trade organizations; market experts; and academics “to validate assumptions and ground the findings in real world conditions.” The convergence of biotechnology, artificial intelligence, and advanced data analytics could increase U.S. corn yields by 1.6 percent annually through 2050, unlocking nearly 50 percent more production without expanding acreage if farmers have the incentive to invest in new technologies. Under this optimized scenario, global biofuel output would triple or more by 2050. At the same time, biofuel production would generate valuable co-products that would be returned to the food system, delivering higher food and feed supplies.

