Key highlights:
- Japan’s Nikkei soared past 65,000 for the first time Monday, closing at 65,158.19 after an intraday high of 65,408.87, up 2.87%. The index’s 8.95% rise over the past three sessions was its biggest three-day gain in over six years. The broader Topix climbed 1.29% to 3,942.57 as optimism over a potential deal to end the Iran war lifted demand for risk assets.
- Japanese government bonds rallied Monday, sending yields down from recent multi-decade highs as signs of progress toward resolving the Middle East conflict eased inflation concerns. The benchmark 10‑year JGB yield fell 5 basis points to 2.710% (after touching a 29‑year high of 2.8% last week), while the 30‑year yield slipped 5.5 bps to 3.955% (recently a record 4.2%). Yields move inversely to bond prices.
- Oil prices tumbled about 6% to two‑week lows on Monday as optimism mounted that the U.S. and Iran were nearing a peace deal. Brent fell $5.85 (5.7%) to $97.69 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate slid $5.75 (6%) to $90.85 by 0343 GMT, with both contracts touching their weakest levels since May 7 earlier in the session.
- The dollar hovered near its weakest in a week in Asian trade on Monday. The dollar slipped 0.2% to 158.9 yen, the euro rose 0.3% to $1.1636, and the pound gained 0.3% to $1.3476. Holiday closures across the region left liquidity thin.
- Gold climbed over 1% on Monday as hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace breakthrough. Spot gold rose 1.1% to $4,557.46 an ounce at 0542 GMT, while June U.S. futures gained 0.8% to $4,558.80.
- Copper climbed on Monday as the dollar and oil slid on growing hopes of a U.S.-Iran peace deal, easing inflation and growth concerns. Three-month LME copper rose 0.9% to $13,635/ton at 0552 GMT, while the most‑traded Shanghai contract gained 0.9% to 105,370 yuan ($15,507.56)/ton.
On Sunday night, , and especially climbed as crude oil plunged; President Trump said the U.S. and Iran are close to an interim deal, but he is in no “rush.”
Last week, the market brushed off a brief, orderly pullback as and Treasury yields eased on hopes of an Iran deal. The notched a record close Friday at 50,579, with the other major indexes not far behind despite a late-day fade, and many leading stocks rallied past key resistance. Markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day.
Following a seven-week surge that drove the up about 17%.Stocks climbed again last week, stretching the win streak to eight, the longest run since 2023.
The advance has been powered by earnings and led by tech, while bond markets are pricing risks from higher oil, persistent inflation, rising government debt, and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next moves.
The rally’s durability is encouraging, but rising rates add another layer to the market’s wall of worry.
A bond-market selloff has Wall Street uneasy, the climbed to its highest since January 2025, and the hit levels not seen since 2007 before both eased late in the week. Rising yields, bond prices falling—pressure stock valuations and raise borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. Inflation concerns and war-driven energy spikes are the main forces pushing yields higher.
US Economic data and Earnings Calendar:
Economic focus this week is on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—the . The April PCE reading, due Thursday, follows hotter-than-expected prints this month from other consumer and producer price measures and will help shape the Fed’s view on progress toward its 2% inflation target.
This week’s corporate calendar features results from , , , , and Snowflake, as investors seek signals on consumer demand and AI spending.
With over 90% of S&P 500 firms having reported, Q1 earnings are pacing to rise about 29% year‑over‑year, per LSEG IBES.
Key retailers reporting soon include , Best Buy, and Dollar Tree as markets watch whether higher gas prices are denting other consumer spending. Walmart shares fell after management reiterated cautious annual sales and profit targets.
AI remains a central theme; Salesforce and Dell will be watched for cloud and server demand, while Nvidia is seen as an AI bellwether, forecasted to reach $91 billion in Q2 revenue, topping Street estimates.
Economic calendar:(week of May 25– 29)
Monday 05/25
Tuesday 05/26
- ; FHFA Housing Price Index; S&P Case‑Shiller Home Price Index
Wednesday 05/27
- MBA Mortgage Applications Index
Thursday 05/28
- ; Durable Goods; EIA Crude Oil Inventories; EIA Natural Gas Inventories; Q2 (Second Estimate); Initial Claims; PCE Prices; Personal Income; Personal Spending; New Home Sales
Friday 05/29
- Advanced International Trade in Goods; Advanced Retail Inventories; Advanced Wholesale Inventories;
Key Earnings calendar:(week of May 25–29)
Tuesday 05/26
Wednesday 05/27
- Agilent Technologies Inc. (A), Bank of Montreal (BMO), Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), Best Buy (BBY), DICK’s Sporting Goods Inc. (DKS), Dycom Industries Inc. (DY), HP Inc. (HPQ), Marvell Technology Inc. (MRVL), PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD), Salesforce Inc. (CRM), Snowflake Inc. (SNOW), Synopsys Inc. (SNPS)
Thursday 05/28
- Autodesk Inc. (ADSK), Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY), Burlington Stores Inc. (BURL), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM), Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST), Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL), Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR), Futu Holdings Ltd. (FUTU), Gap Inc. (GAP), Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL), MongoDB Inc. (MDB), NetApp Inc. (NTAP), Okta Inc. (OKTA), Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)
Friday 05/29
- Buckle Inc. (BKE), Chagee Holdings Ltd. (CHA), Genesco Inc. (GCO), NextTrip Inc. (NTRP)
A more detailed earnings calendar
Marvell Technology (MRVL) is set to release fiscal Q1 results late Wednesday; analysts forecast EPS of $0.79 (up 27% YoY) on revenue of about $2.4 billion (up 26%). Investors will be watching updates on Marvell’s custom AI processors and networking chips as the stock trades near record highs.
Dell Technologies (DELL) is set to report fiscal Q1 results late Thursday, with analysts forecasting $2.90 EPS (up 87% YoY) on $34.9 billion in revenue (up 49%). The company is riding a robust demand for AI data-center infrastructure and aiming to gain share from rivals such as HPE and Supermicro. At its May 18 Dell Technologies World in Las Vegas, the firm unveiled an AI roadmap covering servers, storage, and workstations.
Costco Wholesale (COST) reports Q3 results on Thursday amid concerns that higher fuel costs could cloud retail outlooks for the rest of 2026. Analysts expect EPS of $4.98 (up >16%) on revenue of $69.6 billion (up 10%), with FactSet forecasting comparable‑store sales growth of 7.8%. Investors will watch membership trends for signs of sustained consumer demand. Costco’s sales acceleration hit a 13% gain in April.
Salesforce (CRM) and Snowflake (SNOW) report Q1 earnings on Wednesday, and their results could influence the software sector’s recovery narrative amid AI disruption fears. Snowflake is expected to post 34% EPS growth to 32 cents on 27% revenue growth to $1.324 billion, while Salesforce is expected to deliver 21% EPS growth to $3.13 on 12% revenue growth to $11.05 billion, though Salesforce will report under a different methodology.
Weekly US Indices Probability Map:
- The U.S. weekly market probability map for May 25 – 29, 2026, suggests “Shorter trading weeks tend to be bullish!”.
- These probability maps are derived from historical seasonality patterns.
- Sentiment readings are derived from a seasonality-based scoring system.
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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, & Fund Management. He is the founder of www.twtlearning.com providing financial education, research and advisory services to fund & hedge fund managers and family offices.
He has been trading FX, FX options, US stocks & options, Indices, Commodities & Oil, and Metals Futures. He has a CMT charter, an AAPTA membership, and a CMT Canada membership. He has worked in various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.
He is regarded as an excellent mentor and has trained more than 2000+ users in North America, Gulf countries & Asia on financial markets & products, active and passive trading, and technical analysis strategies. He emanated technical analysis daily and weekly reports for BridgeNews Chicago bureau and updated technical analysis reports on Bloomberg and Reuters while working with ABN Amro bank treasury & capital markets. Has moderated and produced technical analysis reports for Thomson Reuters (Refinitiv) users’ chat rooms and trained users on technical analysis techniques and models. Conducted TA & Global Markets outlook workshop with central banks, sovereign funds, global & regional banks & family offices.