The Euribor, the main reference for most variable rate mortgages in Spain, has ended August at 2.95%, the highest record since that same month in 2024, when it was at 3.169%. This is derived from preliminary data collected by Europa Press, still pending ratification by the Bank of Spain.
Compared to July, the index has advanced 11 basis points. In relation to August 2025, the increase is 84 basis points, as the Euribor was then at 2.112%.
At this level, a variable mortgage of 150,000 euros over 30 years, with a differential of 0.99% plus Euribor and a review with the August data, will see its monthly payment increase by 70.25 euros, which represents an annual additional cost of 843 euros.
The calculation, prepared by Europa Press, reflects the greatest possible impact for a loan with that outstanding capital, given that it is a review at the beginning of the mortgage’s life (30 years remain to be amortized). At this stage, any variation in the interest rate has a more intense impact, as there is still a lot of principal to repay.
In this context, the spokesperson for iAhorro, Laura Martínez, has pointed out that, with the current figures, the Euribor “is anticipating a tightening of the cost of money by the European Central Bank (ECB).” She emphasized that the market is anticipating the movement of central banks, which have not yet clarified whether there will be new increases in the official cost of money, “which is already being reflected in the monthly payment of variable rate mortgages.”
On the other hand, the spokesperson for Personal Finance at Kelisto.es, Pedro Ruiz, has warned that the “most concerning” thing is that the rise in the Euribor comes accompanied by new signs that inflationary pressures stemming from the conflict in the Middle East are being “more persistent than expected.”
“The scenario has clearly worsened compared to what we were dealing with just a month ago, which considerably reduces the margin for the interbank reference rate to experience a significant drop in the short term,” Ruiz emphasized.
In the same vein, the finance expert from Roams, Pablo Vega, has pointed out that, looking ahead to the September meeting — in which the market is already discounting a 25 basis point increase — investors “will not only be focused on whether the ECB raises the interest rate, but on how many increases they believe may remain afterwards.”
Vega has added that this will be the “true catalyst” to determine if the 3% environment acts as a “consolidation zone or as a starting point for a new upward leg.”
The Euribor, on track to close 2026 above 3%
Regarding the close of 2026, analysts from different firms agree that the evolution of the Euribor will be almost entirely conditioned by what happens in the Middle East. Nevertheless, most expect the index to remain close to 3%.
“If diplomatic advances allow for the gradual normalization of transit through Hormuz, energy prices moderate and the ECB limits its response to an additional increase in September, the Euribor could end 2026 around 2.8%-3,” estimated the Personal Finance spokesperson from Kelisto.
On the contrary, if the conflict prolongs and is not channeled in the second half of the year, the mortgage analyst from HelpMyCash, Miquel Riera, estimates that the interbank rate “will reach 3% in December; with options to rise to 3.10% at most.”
In any case, Riera expects the Euribor to finish 2026 above the levels of December 2025 –when it stood at 2.267%–. For this reason, he advises holders of variable mortgages to analyze whether they will be able to afford the payments with a Euribor at 3% or higher. “If your economic capacity does not allow it, it is important to talk to the bank to seek solutions, such as switching to a fixed rate or reducing the payment by extending the term,” he has recommended.