Commodity markets saw mixed moves through May, with the Middle East conflict continuing to dominate. Crude oil softened from earlier highs, while LNG remains relatively tight amid ongoing disruption. Coal prices have risen on a supply shock, while iron ore is beginning to lose some transient sources of support. Gold has eased on higher global yields, while base metals have continued to firm. The outlook remains volatile as global markets adjust and realign in response to the apparent resolution of the US–Iran conflict, which is set to see the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The following is based on text from the June Market Outlook (PDF 4MB)
For more details of our longer-term forecasts see June Commodity Forecasts
May was a tale of two halves, with our broadest commodities index declining 0.8%mth over the month. Energy commodities led the weakness, with expectations of an imminent agreement between the US and Iran capping gains. Brent crude eased 0.5%mth, while Japanese LNG declined 1.4%mth and Newcastle thermal coal fell 2.4%mth. Gold also softened, down 2.5%mth as markets priced in a higher global rate outlook. In contrast, bulk and base commodities were firmer, with iron ore rising 1.0%mth, while aluminium and copper recorded gains of 2.2%mth and 5.6%mth, respectively. Reflecting market resilience, we have revised our crude oil forecasts lower, with a September quarter average Brent price of US$87/bbl, 13% below our previous update.
Note all prices in the following text are quarter averages.
Oil prices fall, but volatility remains
The Middle East conflict continues under a fragile ceasefire, with expectations of an imminent resolution capping further price gains. Brent eased below US$100/bbl in the final week of May, having reached a local peak of US$114/bbl earlier in the month. Dated Brent remains at a modest premium, although this has narrowed from earlier extremes. Our analysis continues to place greater weight on these physical prices, which reflect ongoing tightness in underlying market conditions. Supply remains constrained by production shut ins, infrastructure damage and persistent shipping dislocation, with many vessels avoiding the Strait of Hormuz. Cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers now exceed 1 billion barrels, with more than 14mb/d currently shut in. Partial relief has come from increased Atlantic basin supply, rerouting of Saudi and UAE exports, softer Chinese demand, and global inventory drawdowns totalling 117mb in April.
While inventories provide some buffer, they remain finite, implying ongoing competition for available barrels. We continue to expect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to remain around 10% of pre conflict levels in June, only normalising by mid 2027, consistent with guidance from the head of ADNOC that full flows are unlikely to return before early 2027. We therefore expect Brent to average US$87/bbl in Q3 2026, 13% below our previous update, although we expect prices to remain highly volatile over the quarter, driven by shifting headlines around the Middle East and tightening global inventories. Prices are forecast to ease further to an average of US$85/bbl in Q4 2026 and moderate through 2028 as supply and shipping conditions normalise and demand adjusts.
LNG markets remain tight
LNG markets remain acutely exposed to the conflict, with around 300mcm/day – approximately one fifth of global supply – disrupted from Qatar and the UAE. Ras Laffan in Qatar, the world’s largest LNG export complex, has remained offline since early March, with the IEA noting that repairs could take years, while storage levels were already depleted exiting the Northern Hemisphere heating season. Asia remains highly exposed, with 80–90% of LNG volumes transiting the Strait of Hormuz destined for the region. While prices remain elevated, gains have been tempered by ceasefire optimism and limited fuel switching across Japan and South Korea.
Reflecting these offsets, we have revised lower our expected peak in Japanese LNG prices to an average of US$19.5/ mmbtu in the September quarter. Given infrastructure damage and limited alternative export capacity, LNG markets are expected to remain tight, with prices unlikely to return to pre conflict levels until 2028. Domestically, however, the Australian gas market remains relatively insulated. A domestic gas reservation scheme, requiring exporters to supply the equivalent of 20% of gas exports to the Australian market as announced in the FY2027 Federal Budget, alongside broader regulatory pressure, is expected to keep domestic prices contained.
Coal rises as Shanxi mine explosion tightens supply
In coal markets, a major gas explosion at a coking coal mine in Shanxi province resulted in 82 fatalities, prompting widespread inspections and production suspensions across coal mining operations in China. This has supported coal prices, with gains extending into early June. Thermal coal continues to be supported by shifting energy policy dynamics, with countries prioritising energy security over emissions targets, with investment in new coal supply reaching its highest level in 14 years according to the IEA, led by China and India. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have increased coal procurement as a hedge against LNG disruptions, while additional support stems from reduced Indonesian domestic supply and a forecast super El Niño event lifting cooling demand in the Northern Hemisphere. We expect Newcastle thermal coal prices to peak in the September quarter of 2026 at US$145/t, before easing toward US$120/t throughout 2027 as demand normalises. Prices are then expected to rise over the remainder of the forecast period, as ongoing demand is not fully matched by stalling new supply.
Metallurgical coal prices are also expected to rise, supported by the Shanxi disruption and delays to Australian premium mid vol cargo deliveries between April and June, which have shifted the market from surplus to shortage. This tightness is unlikely to be fully offset by softer demand from Indian steelmakers and new supply from Mongolia, with prices expected to peak at an average of US$242/t in the September quarter of 2026 before moderating.
Iron ore losing sources of transient price support
Iron ore prices continue to hold above US$100/t, although they have softened marginally from recent highs. Higher freight costs linked to the energy shock continue to provide some support with freight accounting for an estimated 15–30% of delivered costs. A seasonal rebound in steel production following the Northern Hemisphere winter has also provided support, although volumes remain below prior years, with China’s steel manufacturing PMI in contractionary territory across April and May. Margins are also under pressure, with the Shanxi mining disaster lifting coking coal prices and further compressing steel mill margins, with lower grade ores particularly vulnerable. In addition, the resolution of the BHP–CMRG dispute has removed a source of price support, while improved weather conditions in Australia and Brazil are supporting higher shipments into China. We continue to expect the 62% Fe index to average US$97/t in the December quarter.
The medium-term outlook is increasingly challenged, with surplus conditions expected to emerge. Supply side pressures are building, driven by new low-cost output from Simandou, with Wood Mackenzie estimating export volumes could double to 40Mt in 2027. Persistently high port inventories in China and softer global steel demand, as major economies contend with higher energy costs and weaker industrial momentum, will add further downside pressure. Increased scrap usage and a structural decline in Chinese steel production are also eroding underlying demand, with growth in India and South East Asia providing only a partial offset. Taken together, these factors point to rising downside risk beyond the near term. We therefore expect iron ore prices to soften further, averaging around US$84/t in the December quarter of 2027, as surplus conditions become more evident.
Gold struggles against rising yields
Gold has corrected sharply from its January highs, erasing most gains through 2026. This reflects the ongoing Middle East conflict, with markets increasingly focused on the inflationary implications of sustained higher oil prices and the likelihood that central banks will have to accelerate rate hiking cycles. As a non yielding asset, gold has faced a notable rotation as higher real yields have proven more attractive, with safe haven demand insufficient to offset this dynamic. Additional pressure from profit taking and some central bank selling has also weighed on prices.
As a result of recent dynamics, we have downgraded our outlook, with the September quarter average now expected at US$4,600/oz. Some support is likely to emerge should progress toward resolution of the conflict materialise. A period of lower volatility and easing real yields would provide scope for prices to stabilise and encourage a gradual return of longer term investors. Further support may also arise around the US midterm elections, where safe haven demand could strengthen. We therefore expect modest gains through the remainder of 2026, followed by a period of consolidation in early 2027 as brownfield expansion in existing operations lifts supply in response to recent high prices. Over the longer term, structural support is expected to persist, driven by ongoing Asian demand and continued central bank purchases as a hedge against geopolitical and policy risks.
Copper faces growing headwinds in the medium-term
Copper prices strengthened through May, rising 5.6%mth, although recent gains appear to be outpacing fundamentals. Concerns around sulphuric acid shortages – critical to copper production and heavily linked to Gulf supply – alongside investor demand tied to growth expectations, have driven prices higher. We have therefore raised our September average quarter forecast to US$13,510/t. While hastened electrification investment, China’s crackdown on the ‘invoice-economy’ tightening liquidity, and US stockpiling may support prices near-term, further upside appears limited, with demand destruction risks emerging amid higher energy costs and weaker global growth, and incremental new mine supply placing some downward pressure on prices. Nonetheless, longer‑term support remains, with prices expected to strengthen later in the forecast period as net‑zero targets, EV uptake, renewable deployment, and data centre expansion drive demand.
Aluminium market likely to remain tight for some time
Aluminium prices have continued to firm, briefly exceeding US$3,700/t through May and early June. Elevated energy input costs and disruptions to Gulf smelting capacity remain key drivers. Aluminium production is highly energy intensive, with power prices directly influencing marginal costs. The Gulf region accounts for around ~9% of global smelting capacity, though its share of global trade is higher, amplifying the supply shock. Production has declined materially, with the IAI reporting a 2.1%yr fall globally in April, driven by a 34.7%yr decline in GCC output and a 32.0%yr fall in African production following the closure of the Mozal refinery.
These disruptions, combined with the time‑ and capital‑intensive nature of restarting capacity, are limiting the speed of supply recovery. Higher prices are, however, encouraging restarts in other regions, including the reopening of idle capacity at Alcoa’s Portland smelter in Victoria, although the global impact remains limited. China, which accounts for 60% of global production, has only marginally increased output, while potential restrictions on Guinean bauxite exports pose additional risks. Against this backdrop, we expect aluminium prices to peak in the March quarter of 2027 at US$4,020/t, before moderating as supply stabilises and new Indonesian supply comes online, although longer‑term support will come from datacentres, EV and grid infrastructure demand.
EV uptake to support lithium
The lithium market has transitioned toward a more balanced position. Spodumene (6% FOB Australia) prices have stabilised in the US$2,000–3,000/t range, with recent gains reflecting a drawdown in inventories and an accelerated build‑out of energy storage. In the near term, this dynamic is expected to persist as downstream users maintain lean inventory positions amid ongoing price volatility, while recent fuel insecurity continues to support investment in energy storage solutions. Additional support is expected from accelerating EV adoption, as buyers respond to higher fuel prices, with electric vehicles projected to account for 28% of global sales in 2026, according to the IEA. Unlike earlier in the cycle, the EV market is now sufficiently mature for fuel price dynamics to influence purchasing decisions, with lower‑cost Chinese EVs gaining share, accounting for 60% of global EV sales in 2025.
Over the medium to longer term, lithium demand is expected to remain underpinned by structural electrification trends. EVs will continue to be the primary driver, while growth in battery energy storage systems is likely to accelerate alongside expanding renewable generation. The increasing role of data centres is also expected to support demand for storage, as systems are deployed to alleviate transmission constraints and enable peak shaving. On the supply side, expanding production, particularly from Australia, is expected to place a cap on price upside.
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