Shopping for platinum jewellery, especially of the bridal variety, has become more expensive in the past year thanks to the 35% improvement in the metal’s price. But for a good deal, look no further than putting a diamond in it.
Prices for 1ct-1.2ct diamonds have fallen between 35% and 40% over the same period. Given that platinum is a small part of a diamond jewellery piece, its price has inflated much less than implied by the screen-traded metal price. “In effect, these depressed diamond prices have subsidised the cost of higher metal input costs, and platinum is a beneficiary of the disruptive impact of synthetic diamonds,” say analysts at RMB Morgan Stanley.
According to research consultancy Metals Focus, the improvement in the gold price has also resulted in manufacturers pivoting into platinum jewellery. Consequently, platinum jewellery demand rose for a second successive year in 2025, up 10% to 2.2-million ounces — its highest level since 2017.
Metals Focus is projecting a 12% decline in platinum jewellery this year, partly owing to China’s decision to remove VAT rebates on end-user prices. But the market for jewellery could have been much worse for platinum.
It could not be worse for diamonds, however. Macroeconomic factors such as the US cost of living crisis, tariffs, the property crisis and the decline in marriage rates in China have borne down grievously on the diamond sector. But lab-grown synthetic diamonds have exerted the most pressure on the natural diamond market.
Between 2015 and 2025, the natural diamond market fell 16% in volume — from 128-million carats to 107-million carats — and 33% in value, from $15.6bn to $9.5bn, according to James Allan, a mining consultant and top-rated diamond analyst. Over the same period, synthetic diamond production rose 170-fold to 34-million carats, with total value climbing from $170m to $3.4bn. “This is the worst market in my career,” says Allan in an interview with industry publication Miningmx.
Nowhere is the distress plainer than at De Beers, the London-based miner and marketer. In 2012 the company was worth $12.75bn, a valuation imputed from Anglo American’s $5.1bn buyout of the Oppenheimer family’s 40% stake at the time. Today, Anglo’s 85% stake in De Beers is carried on its books at $2.3bn following two impairments in as many years.
Lesser lights have sunk without trace. Australia’s Lucapa Diamonds, UK-listed Firestone Diamonds and Canada’s Mountain Province Diamonds have either closed or shut operations. Ekapa Minerals in Kimberley is edging towards bankruptcy. At 5.8-million carats in 2024, South African diamond production is half that of 2022, according to data from the Minerals Council South Africa.
You may have heard the narrative that under-30s are not engaging with the diamond dream. This is a myth
— Al Cook, De Beers CEO
South African production is ever shrinking. Petra Diamonds, a UK-listed firm, put its Finsch mine into business rescue and unveiled a round of cost reductions. More ominous still, it flagged its potential failure to meet minimum liquidity covenant tests from the end of June to October 31. These are desperate times.
Analysts doubt the natural diamond market will ever reclaim its former grandeur. “What we are seeing now is a structural change with the advent of lab-grown diamonds into the engagement market, substituting natural diamonds to a large degree,” James Campbell, MD of diamond explorer Botswana Minerals, tells Miningmx.
Data produced by De Beers in The Diamond Report this month acknowledges that the synthetic diamond industry has carved a niche for itself in the under-3ct market. But it also sees signs of hope. “Perhaps consumers feel synthetic lab-grown diamonds beyond this size look too big,” says Eirik Wærness, chief economist at De Beers. He predicts that retail mark-ups in lab-grown diamonds of up to 1,000% will not persist.
The group is therefore placing its hopes on continued margin pressure among synthetic diamond manufacturers as well as its return last year to category marketing of specific diamond sizes, especially in the US, which comprises half of De Beers’ diamond sales.
Drawing on survey responses from 18,500 women aged between 18 and 74, De Beers sees flickers of resurgence. Diamonds are the most desired luxury gift, it says — though, fascinatingly, they are still behind the memory-making moments of an overseas holiday. It also thinks Gen Z is among the most interested buyers, contrary to popular perception.
“You may have heard the narrative that under-30s are not engaging with the diamond dream,” says De Beers CEO Al Cook in the report. “This is a myth.”
Average spend on natural diamonds increased across the board in 2025 — up 25% compared with 2023. De Beers’ research also found that Gen Z is spending almost double what Boomers spend when buying natural diamonds.
This is all grist to the mill and no doubt uppermost wherever Anglo American is meeting its shortlist of buyers for its De Beers stake. Gareth Penny, a former CEO of De Beers, is said to be heading the shortlist of potential buyers. He would be a good choice, having seen diamond wax and wane and back through the cycle again.
Anglo undertook to sell De Beers as it refocused its portfolio to copper and iron ore. Buyers, which will include the Botswana government, a 15% shareholder with pre-emptive rights, will need to have proven marketing chops, however. True, global rough diamond production has fallen a third to 100-million carats since 2017, but supply and demand dynamics count for little unless producers can cleverly re-spin the diamond dream.