Lithium Was the Top Performing Commodity in H1

Every year in early July, we update our interactive Periodic Table of Commodities Returns to reflect the performance of raw materials in the first six months of the year. Maybe I’m biased, but I believe it’s one of the clearest snapshots of the commodities landscape you’ll find anywhere.

And what a snapshot it is. Between a war in the Middle East, a tanker crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and gold’s wildest six months in recent memory, the first half of 2026 turned last year’s leaderboard on its head. Precious metals, which crushed the field in 2025, finished at the bottom of the table. Industrial and energy commodities led the way.

Lithium’s Redemption Story

A year ago, I pointed out that lithium, once the darling of the electric vehicle (EV) boom, had fallen nearly 19%, and I suggested contrarian investors keep an eye on it. Those who did have been rewarded. Lithium rose more than 22% in the first half, making it the top performer among the commodities we track.

What makes this rally different from the 2022 bubble is where the demand is coming from. EVs, the metal’s traditional driver, have cooled considerably. U.S. EV sales fell more than 20% year-over-year in the second quarter, according to Cox Automotive, as the expiration of federal tax credits continued to bite.

The slack is being picked up by stationary energy storage—specifically, the giant battery installations that stabilize power grids and keep artificial intelligence (AI) data centers humming around the clock.

Demand for storage batteries surged 51% in 2025, roughly double the growth rate of EV batteries, and JPMorgan expects storage to account for 30% of global lithium demand this year, rising to 36% by 2030.

Albemarle, the world’s largest producer, projects total demand will roughly double to 3.7 million tonnes by the end of the decade. This demand pillar barely existed during the last lithium rally.

The longer-term picture is even more dramatic. The United Nations (UN) trade body UNCTAD projects lithium demand to rise 353% between 2024 and 2040, with supply concentrated in a handful of countries and nearly 100 new export restrictions introduced since 2020. Resource nationalism of this kind, I believe, is one of the strongest long-term arguments for owning hard assets.

Oil Rides the Hormuz Rollercoaster

Crude oil finished a close second, gaining about 21%. The U.S.-Iran conflict sent prices soaring and choked tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil. The interim ceasefire brought dramatic relief—North Sea prices plunged $31 a barrel in June alone, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)—but renewed exchanges of fire this week, and President Trump’s declaration that the ceasefire is over, have put a risk premium right back into the barrel.

A bright spot is that U.S. exports of crude oil and petroleum products hit an all-time record of 13.6 million barrels per day in April as global buyers turned to reliable American supply.

Domestic energy production has proven itself a strategic asset. Drivers have felt the volatility at the pump, though. The national average for regular gasoline peaked at $4.56 a gallon in May and, after weeks of easing, is climbing again at $3.84.

Copper and the AI Buildout

Copper posted a more modest 7% gain in the first half, but don’t let that fool you. The World Bank projects its metals and minerals price index will rise 17% in 2026 to an all-time high, with copper, aluminum and tin each expected to set record annual highs. BMO now sees copper averaging a record $6 per pound this year, citing stagnant mine supply and the widest concentrate deficits in years.

Loyal readers know I’ve been pounding the table on copper’s role in the AI revolution, and the research keeps getting stronger.

Bank of America estimates that AI infrastructure requires 60 to 75 tons of metals per megawatt of capacity, largely in power and cooling systems, with lead times for power equipment now stretching three to five years. Wood Mackenzie goes further, finding that once you count grid reinforcement and transmission, total metals consumption runs three to four times what the data center itself implies. The bottleneck, in other words, is the grid.

Gold: A Healthy Correction

Gold entered 2026 red-hot following a 64% gain in 2025, its best year since 1979. It crossed above $5,500 an ounce intraday in January before profit-taking and the Iran shock dragged it below $4,000 by late June, leaving it down about 7% for the half. Silver fell 18%, while platinum and palladium, last year’s stars, brought up the rear.

I view this as a correction within a broader bull market, not the end of one. Even after the pullback, gold remains up roughly 25% from a year ago, and silver is up about 70%.

The structural drivers haven’t gone anywhere. Central banks purchased 863 tonnes of gold in 2025, absorbing nearly a quarter of annual mine production, and a record number of central bankers say they expect their own institutions to add to gold reserves over the next 12 months. After Washington and its allies froze Russian reserves in 2022, de-dollarization stopped being a theory and became policy. That hasn’t changed.

Seasonality favors the bulls too. July has historically been the second-strongest month of the year for the yellow metal, averaging a 1.5% gain with positive returns 65% of the time over the past two decades. August is the strongest.

BMO forecasts gold reaching $4,800 by year-end and $5,000 in 2027 as Federal Reserve rate cuts draw nearer, while the World Gold Council (WGC) believes a clear catalyst—whether a shift in rate expectations or a fresh geopolitical shock—could lift the metal back toward $4,500 or above.

Positioning for the Second Half

If the first half of 2026 proved anything, it’s that commodities remain the world’s most geopolitically sensitive asset class, and one of its best portfolio diversifiers precisely for that reason. War repriced oil. AI repriced lithium and copper. And a 20% drawdown in gold left its long-term case, from central bank demand to Washington’s ever-growing debt load, fully intact.

Again, I invite you to explore the interactive Periodic Table of Commodities Returns, which makes it easy to compare commodity performance across years and sectors.

Airlines and Shipping

Strengths

• The best performing airline stock for the week was EasyJet, up 20.7%. EasyJet also made headlines after agreeing in principle to a cash takeover proposal from Apollo valued at 715 pence per share (£5.5 billion), topping a competing offer from Castlelake. The proposal is non-binding, and there is no break fee. Apollo said it plans to support EasyJet’s long-term growth by expanding its fleet, enhancing its loyalty program and ancillary services, and scaling the business.

• DHL reported stronger-than-expected preliminary second-quarter results and raised its 2026 earnings outlook. The company’s performance was driven largely by its Express delivery business, signaling continued strength in global shipping demand.
• Airbus delivered 89 aircraft in June, a 41% increase from a year ago. Year-to-date, the company has delivered 351 aircraft, up 15% from the same period in 2025, reflecting healthy demand from airlines as they continue to expand and modernize their fleets.

Weaknesses

• The worst-performing airline stock for the week was Sabre, down 11.5%. According to Morgan Stanley, Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste’s total passenger traffic decreased 5.8% year over year (YoY) in June. International and domestic traffic declined 10.0% and 3.4% YoY, respectively. Traffic in Mexico posted the largest decrease (-8.5% YoY), followed by Puerto Rico (-4.6% YoY) and Colombia (-1.1% YoY). Passenger traffic at Cancun declined 11.5% YoY.
• ZIM shares fell after Ynet reported on Sunday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said a proposed sale was “not on the agenda.” Netanyahu made the comment during a cabinet meeting after Deputy Minister Almog Cohen warned that the sale could pose a strategic risk because of Qatari and Saudi ownership stakes in potential buyer Hapag-Lloyd.
• According to Goldman Sachs, Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico reported its June operating results. Total passenger traffic declined 5% YoY, despite Guadalajara (which accounted for approximately 30% of the company’s fiscal 2025 passenger traffic) posting 6% YoY growth. Traffic across the company’s Mexico operations fell 3% YoY (domestic down 2% YoY and international down 6% YoY), while traffic in its Jamaica operations declined 18% YoY.

Opportunities

• If current revenue per available seat mile (RASM) and capacity levels become the new baseline, the airline industry could go a long way toward achieving the valuation multiple re-rating it has been seeking, according to Morgan Stanley. That could also help attract more long-term investors.
• According to Morgan Stanley, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are shifting their Gemini service back through the Suez Canal and Red Sea corridor, moving away from the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope. Maersk described the change as a gradual return to Red Sea sailings following a security assessment. If sustained, the move could add shipping capacity to an already oversupplied market.
• According to Raymond James, several airlines have updated their executive incentive plans. JetBlue, Southwest, and Frontier strengthened incentives tied to margin recovery in 2025, while Alaska Airlines added integration-related synergy recapture as a 20% component of its 2025 short-term incentive plan (STIP).

Threats

• According to Morgan Stanley, available seat kilometers (ASK) on routes serving Chinese travel increased year over year (YoY) to South Korea (+11%), Hong Kong (+4%), and Europe (+19%), while capacity on Japan routes declined sharply (-52% YoY).
• A reopening of the Suez Canal shipping route would shorten transit distances, increase effective shipping capacity, lower freight rates, and reduce earnings potential for container shipping companies. Morgan Stanley believes this could add supply to an already oversupplied market. Its base case assumes the full impact of Red Sea rerouting will be reflected in global shipping capacity beginning in the fourth quarter of 2026. The firm estimates that the disruption, which began in 2023, has absorbed approximately 7% of global shipping capacity.
• China’s airline market continued to soften as ticket prices (excluding fuel surcharges) declined 5.9% YoY, reports Bank of America, signaling a weak start to the summer travel season. During the first seven days of the season, the number of flights fell 3.1% YoY, while airline load factors remained relatively healthy at 84%.

Luxury Goods and International Markets

Strengths

• Tesla launched the new Model YL, an updated version featuring a longer body and increased interior space, making it more attractive to families and buyers seeking greater comfort. The launch could strengthen Tesla’s competitive position, support vehicle sales, and help expand its customer base in key markets.
• Eurozone consumer spending showed signs of improvement, supporting the outlook for consumer discretionary companies. May retail sales increased 1.6% year over year and 0.2% month over month, while investor confidence improved significantly, suggesting consumers are becoming more optimistic.
• Vail Resort Inc, an American company which own and operates resorts and hotels with ancillary services, was the top performer in the S&P Global Luxury sector, gaining 6.72% over the past five days. Vail Resort shares rose 9.2% over the past week with trading volume higher than average.

Weaknesses

• Rivian shares fell more than 10% this week after the electric vehicle maker announced a roughly $1.5 billion share offering to help fund the construction of its Georgia manufacturing plant and the launch of its lower-priced R2 SUV. While the capital raise supports the company’s long-term growth plans, investors reacted negatively to the potential dilution from the issuance of new shares.
• Luxury stocks declined this week as consumer confidence weakened and oil prices moved higher following renewed tensions and uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran in the Middle East. Rising energy prices and deteriorating consumer sentiment weighed on expectations for discretionary spending.
• Shinsegae Inc., a South Korean company which operates department stores, was the worst-performing stock in the S&P Global Luxury Index, falling 10.9%. The company Duty Free launched a VIP airport mobility service starting next week, offering home-to-airport transportation support to expand duty-free shopping benefits across the full travel experience.

Opportunities

• RBC Capital Markets raised its price target for Tesla to $500. The firm also said that, in a hypothetical scenario, SpaceX could acquire Tesla at a 20–30% premium, highlighting Tesla’s long-term value. Although the acquisition idea is speculative, the report supported a more positive outlook for the stock.

• Luxury companies are increasing their investment in Formula 1 to connect with the sport’s growing global audience of affluent and younger consumers. LVMH signed a 10-year global partnership with Formula 1 beginning in 2025, while Gucci will become the title sponsor of the Alpine Formula 1 team in 2027. These partnerships enhance brand visibility, deepen customer engagement through exclusive experiences, and reinforce each brand’s image of luxury, innovation, and performance, supporting long-term brand growth.
• Taylor Swift’s July 2026 wedding to Travis Kelce generated significant global media attention and placed several luxury brands in the spotlight. Swift wore a custom Christian Dior Haute Couture wedding gown, Christian Louboutin shoes, and Cartier jewelry. The event highlighted how high-profile celebrity moments can increase brand exposure, influence consumer demand, and reinforce the prestige of luxury fashion and jewelry companies.

Threats

• Renewed conflict in the Middle East poses a key risk to global equity markets. The latest escalation followed Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting U.S. military strikes against Iran and the reinstatement of sanctions on Iranian oil exports. A breakdown of the fragile ceasefire could push oil prices higher, weighing on consumer discretionary companies such as airlines, cruise operators, hotels, and luxury goods producers.
• The luxury sector begins reporting earnings next week, with Watches of Switzerland Group scheduled to release results on July 14, providing one of the first updates on luxury consumer demand. Investors will be watching for signs of improving sales trends, inventory levels, and management guidance, as recent earnings from major luxury brands have raised concerns about slowing growth and weaker profit margins.
• De Beers reduced rough diamond prices following weak demand from buyers and increased competition from lower-cost lab-grown diamonds. The company lowered prices as buyers became less willing to pay premium prices amid slowing luxury spending, particularly in China, and broader economic uncertainty. The move highlights continued weakness in the natural diamond market and ongoing challenges for De Beers’ business.

Energy and Natural Resources

Strengths

• The best performing commodity for the week was again, coffee, up 10.97%. Arabica coffee jumped, extending a chaotic week that included the biggest one-day gain in 26 years on Monday followed by two days of steep declines. The strength reflects tight near-term supplies, exchange-monitored arabica stockpiles have fallen for 12 straight days to their lowest since February 2024 after heavy rains delayed Brazil’s harvest, along with fears that a potentially historic El Niño could strain crops, even as traders still expect a record Brazilian harvest.
• Valero was a standout this week, as shown in the chart below. As a “complex” refiner, Valero has equipment that can turn cheap, lower-quality oil into valuable products like gasoline, diesel, and sulfur byproducts, something simpler refineries can’t do. With supplies of these fuels running low across the US and Valero able to buy more affordable American crude, the company is in a strong position to profit.

• Poland’s KGHM unveiled its “Strategy 2055+” plan, committing $8.55 billion in investment through 2030 with targets of roughly $3.21 billion in annual EBITDA, 730,000 tonnes of paid copper output, and plans for a new domestic mine dubbed “KGHM 2.0.” Roughly 80% of the spending is earmarked for its core Polish operations, with the balance directed toward overseas assets in Chile, the U.S., and Canada as the company grows its global footprint and works to reduce logistics costs — a meaningful long-term supply commitment from Europe’s largest copper producer at a time of accelerating electrification demand.

Weaknesses

• Natural gas was the weakest performing commodity of the week, declining approximately 7.95%. U.S. natural gas slid to a six-week low near $3.00/MMBtu after Freeport LNG said maintenance at its pre-treatment and liquefaction facilities would run from July 10 through late August, temporarily reducing feedgas demand, while the EIA reported a larger-than-expected 61 Bcf storage injection that widened the surplus to the five-year average to 185 Bcf. Forecasts for above-normal temperatures through July 23 should keep power-sector gas burn elevated, but robust Lower 48 production near 110 bcf/d and comfortable inventories continue to cap prices.
• Lithium carbonate prices fell to around CNY 155,000 per tonne, near a three-month low, on speculation that CATL’s Jianxiawo mine in Jiangxi province—suspended last year because of permitting issues—could restart in the second half of 2026 following a government notice regarding a preliminary land assessment. Analysts cautioned that the notice appears to be procedural and does not confirm reopening plans, but the market has largely priced in a near-term restart. A return of production from the Jianxiawo mine could put additional downward pressure on lithium prices, even as new battery manufacturing capacity expected in the third quarter keeps the underlying supply-demand balance relatively tight.
• The United States is working to rebuild its domestic rare earth supply chain, but a shortage of qualified workers remains a key challenge. Rare earth processing plants are expensive and technically complex, and U.S. expertise in rare earth chemical engineering and metallurgy has declined significantly since much of the industry’s production shifted to China. Although federal agencies and universities are working to strengthen the talent pipeline, the United States continues to produce far fewer mining graduates than China and faces economic challenges in attracting specialized workers.

Opportunities

• The U.S. Forest Service is expected to issue a record of decision approving South32’s $2 billion Hermosa zinc and manganese project in Arizona after the mine became the first project designated for expedited review by the Federal Permitting Improvement Steering Council. Located near Tucson and expected to reach full production by 2029, Hermosa contains one of the world’s largest undeveloped zinc deposits and supports the Trump administration’s effort to reduce U.S. reliance on China for critical minerals, potentially serving as a model for faster domestic mine permitting.
• The United States, Japan, and South Korea signed a memorandum of cooperation at the NATO Summit in Ankara to accelerate the deployment of small modular reactors (SMRs) in third countries, initially focusing on the Indo-Pacific region. Washington committed more than $10 million in funding for technical support and a regional training hub. Separately, GE Vernova, Hitachi, Samsung C&T, and Poland’s SGE announced an industry initiative to deploy the 300 megawatt electric (MWe) BWRX-300 SMR across Europe, building on projects already underway in Poland and a proposed 14 reactor deployment in the United Kingdom. The initiative could support long term demand for uranium and the nuclear supply chain.
• Holtec International announced that the Palisades nuclear plant restart project in Michigan has completed its major project phase, including reactor vessel inspections, steam generator refurbishment, and installation of a new fuel handling system. The project is now focused on final testing, verification, and operational readiness ahead of startup. Palisades, which was shut down in 2022 and later acquired by Holtec for restart rather than decommissioning, is licensed to operate through 2031, with an extension to 2051 under review. If successful, it would become the first retired U.S. nuclear reactor to return to service, demonstrating the potential to restore existing nuclear generation capacity as demand for reliable baseload power increases.

Threats

• The U.S. and Iran ceasefire remains fragile after both sides exchanged strikes this week. Iranian media reported multiple explosions across southern Iran, including in Bushehr, home to one of the country’s nuclear power plants. Beyond the direct risk to roughly one fifth of global oil shipments that pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the renewed conflict is fueling inflation concerns that could weigh on global demand. Reuters also reported that China’s producer price inflation reached a four year high in June, putting pressure on manufacturers as weak domestic demand continues to limit pricing power.
• Bank of America projects that the United States could face an electricity shortfall of more than 100 gigawatts between 2026 and 2030. The firm estimates that artificial intelligence driven demand could exceed 230 gigawatts, compared with just 93 gigawatts of accredited utility supply, resulting in annual electricity load growth of 4.1%, a sharp increase from the flat growth experienced between 2010 and 2020. With gas turbines in short supply, developers are increasingly turning to reciprocating engines from Caterpillar, INNIO, Rolls Royce, and Wärtsilä. At the same time, Nvidia’s server rack power density continues to rise, creating additional strain on the electric grid and increasing the risk of higher power and fuel costs.
• According to Macquarie, copper prices may be running ahead of market fundamentals as global inventories continue to rise, even with prices approaching $14,000 per ton. Bloomberg reported that copper was on track for a second consecutive weekly gain as investors looked beyond renewed tensions in the Middle East. However, the growing disconnect between speculative buying and physical demand could increase the risk of a pullback if geopolitical tensions ease or Chinese demand fails to absorb excess inventories.

Bitcoin and Digital Assets

Strengths

• Kraken, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, is pursuing a full banking license in Europe, potentially becoming the first crypto exchange to operate as a licensed bank in the region. The initiative follows Kraken Financial becoming the first digital asset bank to gain access to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s payment infrastructure in 2026, emphasizing the growing integration of crypto firms into the global financial system.
• The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to propose “Regulation Crypto” this month, introducing temporary registration exemptions, fundraising flexibility, and a safe harbor for crypto startups. The proposal would mark the first major crypto-specific rulemaking under SEC Chairman Paul Atkins, advancing regulatory clarity for digital asset innovation in the U.S.
• Vanguard, one of the world’s largest asset managers with nearly $10 trillion in assets under management, is hiring its first Head of Digital Assets to lead its strategy on cryptocurrencies, tokenization, stablecoins, and blockchain. The move signals a notable shift for a firm that has historically been one of the industry’s most cautious institutional voices on digital assets.

Weaknesses

• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $4 billion in net outflows during the second quarter, including significant withdrawals from BlackRock’s IBIT in June, as Bitcoin fell about 14% and posted its third consecutive quarterly decline. The outflows suggest continued institutional caution and capital rotation toward other sectors such as artificial intelligence.
• Securitize, a BlackRock-backed digital asset tokenization platform, has fallen 40% since going public through a SPAC merger. The decline reflects continued investor caution toward newly listed crypto companies, with BitGo (-70%) and Gemini (-85%) also posting significant losses after their market debuts.
• Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, sold 3,588 BTC for approximately $216 million, reducing its holdings to 843,775 BTC. While the sale represented just 0.42% of its bitcoin reserves, analysts cautioned that recurring BTC sales to support liquidity or preferred stock obligations could weigh on investor confidence over time.

Opportunities

• BNB Chain, one of the world’s largest blockchain ecosystems with approximately $5 billion in total value locked (TVL), is developing a new Layer-1 network for high-frequency trading and autonomous AI agents. The project targets 100,000+ transactions per second and sub-50 millisecond preconfirmations, positioning the network for the next generation of AI-powered decentralized applications.
• Paradigm, one of crypto’s leading venture capital firms, raised a $1.2 billion fund to invest in artificial intelligence and robotics, while reaffirming its long-term commitment to digital assets. The firm, founded by Coinbase co-founder Fred Ehrsam, sees growing overlap between AI and blockchain as the next wave of innovation.
• The European Commission is considering expanding MiCA, the European Union’s crypto regulatory framework, to address tokenization and non-EU stablecoin issuers. The review comes as onchain tokenized stocks have grown 45% in the past month to $2.16 billion, highlighting the rapid expansion of blockchain-based financial markets.

Threats

• India’s central bank continues to favor a policy “leaning toward prohibition” on cryptocurrencies, citing financial stability and capital outflow risks. The country has nearly 39 million crypto investors holding about $2.1 billion in digital assets, yet fewer than 25% of the 645,000 crypto traders in FY2023 reported gains on their tax returns, reinforcing regulatory concerns over tax compliance and adoption.
• Renewed geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran triggered a broad market sell-off, sending the CoinDesk 20 Index, which tracks the performance of the 20 largest digital assets, down 2.9%. Bitcoin and Ether both fell more than 2%, while altcoins accounted for $350 million of the $450 million in crypto liquidations, highlighting how geopolitical shocks can rapidly increase volatility across digital asset markets.

• Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) ordered cryptocurrency trading platforms and online brokers to phase out one-time password (OTP) logins within 12 months, requiring stronger authentication methods such as passkeys and device binding. The regulator also warned firms they will be held accountable for customer losses resulting from inadequate cybersecurity controls, increasing compliance and operational risks.

Defense and Cybersecurity

Strengths

• Lockheed Martin is expanding its undersea warfare portfolio with a $3.45 billion agreement to acquire Ultra Maritime, strengthening its position in anti-submarine warfare and naval sensing technologies.
• Boeing has secured more than $1 billion in export contracts with Australian suppliers since 2007, highlighting its extensive partnerships with more than 110 local suppliers.
• AMD introduced its Zen 6-based EPYC “Venice” server processors, featuring up to 256 cores and delivering more than 70% higher performance and efficiency than earlier generations. The processors are designed for data center and AI workloads.

Weaknesses

• Nvidia’s Kyber architecture has reportedly been delayed until 2028 due to manufacturing challenges, creating potential market opportunities for AMD and Google in AI infrastructure.
• QTS and Compass Datacenters have officially abandoned their proposed 2,100-acre “Digital Gateway” project in Virginia due to regulatory hurdles and environmental lawsuits. The decision ends plans for a 37-facility hyperscale data center complex that would have required more than 3 gigawatts of power.
• Following President Trump’s declaration that the interim ceasefire was over, the conflict escalated into heavy, direct fighting overnight. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) reportedly launched widespread air and missile strikes against approximately 90 targets inside Iran. Iran responded with drone and ballistic missile strikes targeting U.S. military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar. Kuwaiti air defenses reportedly intercepted multiple incoming ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and 10 drones.

Opportunities

• Cloudflare gained another AI growth catalyst as the company highlighted increasing demand for fair and efficient AI-driven web discovery while announcing a first-of-its-kind research partnership with OpenAI. The collaboration will leverage Cloudflare’s network intelligence to improve the speed, freshness, and accuracy of AI search results. Together, these developments reinforce Cloudflare’s strategic position at the center of the AI ecosystem, with its web-scale data and infrastructure becoming increasingly valuable as AI companies seek better ways to access and index content across the internet.

• NATO has launched the Eastern Flank Deterrence Initiative using Palantir’s Maven Smart System to build an AI-enabled deterrence architecture designed for rapid threat response. Palantir’s system will integrate with platforms from Rheinmetall, Saab, Lockheed Martin, and other defense contractors.
• A coalition of Rheinmetall and MBDA Deutschland will develop a maritime high-energy laser weapon system expected to become operational by 2029. Following successful sea trials aboard the frigate Sachsen, the mid-three-digit million-euro project aims to strengthen national technological sovereignty while providing a cost-efficient defense against airborne, maritime, and land-based threats.

Threats

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged President Donald Trump to block the sale of advanced aviation technology, F-35 fighter jets, and U.S. air defense systems to Turkey. Netanyahu argued that providing these capabilities to Ankara under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s leadership could threaten regional stability, placing Trump in the position of balancing Israel’s security concerns with critical NATO diplomatic relations ahead of the Ankara summit.
• Palo Alto Networks CEO Nikesh Arora said that AI token pricing must decline by approximately 90% to prevent operating costs from becoming a barrier to large-scale AI deployment in industries such as cybersecurity and finance.
• The UK government is consulting on a proposal that could prioritize content from public broadcasters on platforms such as YouTube to promote authoritative news. The proposal has sparked significant public debate over potential algorithmic bias and its impact on independent creators.

Gold Market

This week gold futures closed the week at $4,120.20, down $5.50 per ounce, or 0.13%. Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, ended the week lower by 3.2%. The S&P/TSX Venture Index came off 1.03%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar rose 0.09%.

Strengths

• The best-performing precious metal for its second consecutive weekly gain was palladium, up 0.63%. The gains may reflect short covering following its steep decline that began in February or potentially reduced Russian exports. According to Canaccord, DPM Metals’ gold production exceeded its estimate by 31%, primarily due to stronger-than-expected performance at Vares, where the planned plant shutdown was completed in seven days versus the scheduled 20 days. Production also benefited from a strong quarter at Ada Tepe following its final production blast in April.

• Central bank gold buying accelerated in May, with purchases reaching 41 tons, the highest monthly total since November 2025, according to World Gold Council data. Poland led buying activity with 18 tons, extending its purchase streak and bringing year-to-date purchases to 64 tons. China added 10 tons, its largest monthly increase since December 2024, raising its gold reserves to 2,331 tons. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan also remained notable buyers, adding 9 tons and 7 tons, respectively.
• India’s restrictions on silver imports are creating shortages in the world’s largest silver market, according to Reuters, pushing premiums to their highest levels in six months despite weaker-than-usual demand. Silver premiums over official domestic prices surged to $6.50 per ounce this week, or more than 10% above benchmark prices, according to dealers interviewed by Reuters. The increase followed a sharp decline in silver imports, which fell to 46.8 tons in May from 534.3 tons a year earlier, with one dealer suggesting June imports declined even further. India’s silver restrictions are part of a broader strategy to ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves and support the rupee following the Iran oil shock.

Weaknesses

• The worst-performing precious metal for the week was silver, down 1.46%, as the 2-year Treasury yield climbed 7 basis points. However, softer U.S. labor market data and more dovish comments from Fed Governor Warsh created strategic diversification demand tailwinds. According to BMO, the largest weekly gold ETF outflows since 2018 suggest that speculative institutional and retail investors continue to rotate out of gold amid improving sentiment toward AI and growth sectors.
• De Beers has implemented some of the deepest cuts ever to its official diamond prices, potentially signaling the end of its years-long effort to keep prices well above market levels, according to Bloomberg.
• Torex Gold Resources declined 14% this week after reporting headline gold-equivalent production of 96.3K ounces, which was 10% below NBF’s estimate and 9% below consensus expectations. The shortfall reflected lower-than-expected grades. While NBF anticipated grades would remain low in Q2 at levels similar to Q1 based on the company’s planned mine sequencing, actual results came in below estimates. Management maintained its 2026 guidance and continues to expect grades to improve during the second half of the year.

Opportunities

• Genesis has submitted a definitive scrip and cash offer to acquire Vault Minerals for a headline value of A$5.6 billion. The offer represents a 14.5% premium to Regis Resources’ May scrip bid based on the last closing price. The potential Vault-Regis Resources combined company would have pro forma gold production of 600,000 to 700,000 ounces, lower milling costs, and a combined market capitalization of A$12.5 billion.
• Hong Kong’s pension fund will reportedly be able to invest in additional gold exchange-traded funds as part of the government’s initiative to position the city as a global gold trading hub, according to the South China Morning Post, citing an unidentified source familiar with the matter.
• Mineros increased its full-year 2026 consolidated gold production guidance to 220,000 to 240,000 ounces, up from its previous estimate of 213,000 to 233,000 ounces. The revised guidance reflects sustained metallurgical outperformance and throughput improvements at its Hemco Property in Nicaragua, according to Bloomberg.

Threats

• Silver substitution risk: China’s largest solar manufacturer, Longi Green Energy Technology Co., has begun producing solar cells that use copper instead of silver in response to surging silver prices. Its Shaanxi facility is now operational, marking an important step toward large-scale adoption of the company’s next-generation cell technology. The shift reflects broader efforts across the solar industry to reduce costs through alternative materials, with the sector accounting for approximately 17% of global silver demand.
• Substitution between platinum and palladium also plays a role, with the choice between the two metals largely driven by economics. Morgan Stanley noted that original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) typically require six to 12 months to change formulations. Adjustments in catalyst metal composition apply to both existing vehicle models and new models within that timeframe. For context, China’s palladium consumption has declined by 434K ounces since 2022 to 1.4 million ounces in 2025, while platinum consumption has increased by 275K ounces to 683K ounces over the same period.
• A wave of profit-taking in the gold market has brought a three-year bull run to an end, but there is limited evidence that investors are establishing large-scale short positions in anticipation of further declines. Investors have withdrawn nearly $18 billion from gold exchange-traded funds tracked by Bloomberg since prices peaked at all-time highs near $5,600 per ounce in January.

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Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of (06/30/2026): 

easyJet

Airbus SE

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico

JetBlue Airways Corp.

Southwest Airlines

Frontier Group Holdings Inc.

Tesla

Valero Energy Corp.

Holtec International

Caterpillar Inc.

Rolls Royce

Nvdia Corp.

Boeing Co/The

Palantir Technologies Inc.

Dundee Precious Metals

Torex Gold Resources

Genesis Minerals Ltd.

Mineros S.A.

*The above-mentioned indices are not total returns. These returns reflect simple appreciation only and do not reflect dividend reinvestment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue chip stocks that are generally leaders in their industry. The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies. The Nasdaq Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all Nasdaq National Market and SmallCap stocks. The Russell 2000 Index® is a U.S. equity index measuring the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000®, a widely recognized small-cap index.

The Hang Seng Composite Index is a market capitalization-weighted index that comprises the top 200 companies listed on Stock Exchange of Hong Kong, based on average market cap for the 12 months. The Taiwan Stock Exchange Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all listed common shares traded on the Taiwan Stock Exchange. The Korea Stock Price Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares and preferred shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges.

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index (XAU) is a capitalization-weighted index that includes the leading companies involved in the mining of gold and silver. The U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index provides a general indication of the international value of the U.S. dollar. The S&P/TSX Canadian Gold Capped Sector Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index, whose equity weights are capped 25 percent and index constituents are derived from a subset stock pool of S&P/TSX Composite Index stocks. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold and silver. The S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index is a broad market indicator for the Canadian venture capital market. The index is market capitalization weighted and, at its inception, included 531 companies. A quarterly revision process is used to remove companies that comprise less than 0.05% of the weight of the index, and add companies whose weight, when included, will be greater than 0.05% of the index.

The S&P 500 Energy Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the energy sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the material sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Financials Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941-43 base period. The S&P 500 Industrials Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the industrial sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer discretionary sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Information Technology Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the information technology sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer staples sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Utilities Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the utilities sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Healthcare Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the healthcare sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Telecom Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the telecom sector as a subset of the S&P 500.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely recognized price measures for tracking the price of a market basket of goods and services purchased by individuals. The weights of components are based on consumer spending patterns. The Purchasing Manager’s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment. Gross domestic product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period, though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis. It includes all private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory.

The S&P Global Luxury Index is comprised of 80 of the largest publicly traded companies engaged in the production or distribution of luxury goods or the provision of luxury services that meet specific investibility requirements.